No one in the industry wants to face the prospect that cars could someday find themselves in the same struggle for acceptance as cigarettes. And reality will be enough to keep the industry going, at least for now. Said Mr. Casesa: “There’s no doubt that Americans will still need cars in great numbers. This is a vast country, with lots of space, dominated by a suburban life style. But it doesn’t mean they’ll need a second car or a third car, or as big a car with as much stuff in it.”
Here, some manufacturers may find solace in those who have abandoned their cars but still long for them and hope to return, when circumstances are right. Despite selling her BMW, Ms. Vallance said she could consider purchasing a car again if she moves to a less pedestrian-friendly locale.
Now to make this relevant discussion at a passenger rail forum, how will the societal change set forth in this Times reportage impact passenger rail?
Posted by dns8560 (Member # 15184) on :
A less car-centric society would give impetus for a ressurection of public transportation!
Posted by palmland (Member # 4344) on :
Build it and they will come. Developers seem to be figuring out that people want their new communities to be transit oriented and within a bike ride to the grocery, drug store, and school. Smaller lots with sidewalks and houses with front porches seem to be a new trend that started with a gulf front community in FL called Seaside. Now if you add in a community streetcar that connects to the city transportation center, who needs a car?
This bodes well for Amtrak regional service, not sure how much it will impact LD if people take local transit to regional rail to the airport.
As far as those who downsize, my son is a case in point. He had two yuppie mobiles. When moving to northern NJ, they sold one and purchased a well used bike. He has a one mile ride to the NJ transit station for the ride into the city and loves it. Instead of sitting in traffic and all the car costs, he relaxes and completes a book a week.
Posted by train lady (Member # 3920) on :
all this sounds good for a segment of the population but I can think of anumber of ways it can't work. Palmland's son is in a good situation now but what appens when there is a foot of snow to plow through or the mother who lives 4or 5 blocks from public transportation and needs to take 2 toddlers and and infant to the Dr. A streetcar or bus? I don't think so. How about carrying 5 or6 bags of groceries? Etc
Posted by DeeCT (Member # 3241) on :
GBN,
I am retired. I own a car purchased new in 2003 that now has 15,600 and change miles on it. The annual cost of Insurance, Gasoline, Taxes, Maintenence etc makes the cost per mile insane. (Not even factoring in depreciation.) Coupled with the cost is knowing that my driving skills are not what they once were. I would love to give up my car.
In order to do so --- For daily living, I would need a workable combo of Bus, Taxi and Senior transportation system. For, as you put it, "keeping friends,friends, and family, family" I need, even now, to rely on long distance transportation. (Planes, Passenger Rail and Bus).
If large numbers of those prodded by environmental, financial, aging and other concerns do give up ownership of their cars, then all forms of transportion will be impacted. (That would include both local and long distance passenger rail). Need/Demand will eventually result in increased Supply. One could only hope that such change/impact would be planned for --not just reacted to.
Dee
Posted by rresor (Member # 128) on :
This is a subject I can speak to with some authority. I lived in Brooklyn, NY for five years, and a car was simply a nuisance there. When I needed one for a trip out of town, I rented.
When my wife and I moved from the city (Philadelphia) to the 'burbs in 1995, we chose a town where everything was within walking distance, and a bus to the city stopped on the corner of our block. My wife took the bus to work, and I bicycled (six miles each way) most of the year. We sold one car, and made do with a single vehicle. I biked for five years, and used to keep track of how many days I could go without driving at all.
So it can be done, but two things are necessary: a decent public transportation system, and settlement patterns that not only put everything within walking distance, but make walking pleasant (no huge multilane roads, and sidewalks everywhere). And, of course, intermodal integration, so I can take a bus to the train station, and a train to my ultimate out-of-town destination.
We have most of that here. But most Americans do not. I think it will be quite a while before any significant segment of the population "goes carless".
Posted by Gilbert B Norman (Member # 1541) on :
Yes Dee, autos, especially when purchased new, and not used can be mighty expensive appurtenances. Regardless of what make and model your auto is, the fully allocated cost of such has got to be well in excess of $1.00/mi.
In my case, my present auto was purchased new March 2005. It only has 40K on it and I just "feel it dying on me account non-use'. Its fully allocated cost to date is $1.5569/mi and is the first auto I've ever owned that went off basic warranty on time rather than miles.
"They ain't cheap'; but like Mr. Resor notes, the societal change of doing without (and in the case of my "McMansionite' neighbors that have to ferry their three kids to three different after-school activities in the Escalade, it is an essential - any parent knows you don't tell a kid nowadays to walk home from school, and don't get into trouble until Supper) is simply unthinkable.
Posted by notelvis (Member # 3071) on :
I'm not advanced in years yet to the point that the 'good old days' were that far away........
But the notion of allowing my daughter to walk to and from school unsupervised scares me to death. Not for what she might get into but for what might be done to her.
Yet as an elementary school student grades 1-5 I made the 3/4 mile walk from school to home alone almost every day.
OK....that takes us back 40 years..... Maybe the 'good old days' are that far removed now.
Couple of other points - I'm putting in a resume for a position at the small liberal arts college in my hometown. I have no idea if I'll even get an interview BUT if I do and receive an offer, the salary will most certainly represent a paycut of $8,000 to $12,000 annually. HOWEVER, the tradeoff would be a daily commute of 1.5 miles each way as opposed to 43 'must be driven because there is no viable public transit' miles each way. Going with Mr. Norman's fully allocated figure for owning and operating a private motor vehicle, it's almost an issue of "I can't afford not to make a change if such is offered."
RRESOR, that also plays into your point that most Americans are not fortunate enough to have access to viable public transit. In graduate school (College Park, MD) I often found myself 'going to the country' on Saturdays just so I had an excuse to drive my personal vehicle. The rest of the time I had access within 3 blocks of my apartment to the DC Metro, MARC commuter trains, and the University of Maryland shuttle buses. (I'll resist the urge to tell stories of working for shuttle and driving their buses in the greater DC area....)
Today - I still enjoy getting out on the open road and driving places for leisure. I don't mind driving up to four hours to access an airport if neccessary to get a direct, non-stop flight, on at least a 727 or larger aircraft. I wouldn't mind options for my weekday commute......
Larger, more transit friendly places may be in my future.
Posted by George Harris (Member # 2077) on :
Right ow I live carless in San Francisco.
When I retire in a few short years, I will most likely move back to "home" in north Mississippi. Upon doing that, the picture will change completely. No public transportation either available or practical, not since the Frisco night train quit and Greyhound quit running down the local two lane, now long since repalced by an interstate like highway. Even though when they existed required a couple miles drive or walk. So: it will be back to needing a car until we can no longer live independently. There are relatives and friends that are much more out in the country than that, where there never was public transportation.
There are NO "one size fits all" solutions. Not everyone lives in major urban areas, nor can they, nor do they want to.
Posted by train lady (Member # 3920) on :
The Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments has just come up with a "brilliant"idea. They will drop the gas tax and charge everyone by the number of miles they drive. this has gone over like a lead balloon. We do have 2 commuter lines and the metro and if people would car pool a lot of cars would be off the road but I think this is a concept that is too difficult for them to grasp.
Posted by amtrak92 (Member # 14343) on :
In my area, I don't think we could ever have one car families. My neighbors have like 4+ cars. Plus I think they tried to get a commuter train study, I don't remember how much it would cost. Also in my neck of the woods, there is no good transportation. Not like the city.
Posted by Gilbert B Norman (Member # 1541) on :
Ms. Train Lady, at least the people at large have the sense to allow that nonsense to drop like a lead balloon. The existing fuel tax structure captures two components of highway use with one tax - mileage driven AND weight of the vehicle.
It's a fair tax as it stands.
Posted by train lady (Member # 3920) on :
well, I am of the group that believes that the more roads we have the more cars will fill it. Ergo the more difficulty people have in everyday driving the more likely they will be to use public transport or car pools.he cuncil is still considering the crazy idea. For the life of me I can't figure out how they will be able to monitor all the cars for milage. Maybe this will keep them busy figuring out how to form a committee to form a committee to figure this tax out.
Posted by Tanner929 (Member # 3720) on :
Oh Please, The NY Times finds someone or someplace out of the norm and declares it a trend. I live in a University town where the social engineers have a bus system at their bekon call. And in our liberal save the planet state, if we ended all road projects we'd have 20% unemployment.
Posted by DeeCT (Member # 3241) on :
Tanner,
As for increasing unemployment -- a trip or two through the "road improvement" sites will tell you that we would simply be moving the unemployed from a roadside locale to the Unemployment Office.(Ooops --- forgot. In this state you just call it in once a week.) Those road projects would cost much less if only the actual work hours exceeded the Lunch, Morning Break, Afternoon Break , BS Break etc.
To put put this discussion back on "Track", the next few years will bring to CT endless Talk/Study/Expense while our State's elected "Critters" in Hartford try to figure out how to get a commuter rail line to Bradley International Airport. This just a part of a larger scheme for increased commuter rail lines.
Should be interesting.
Dee
Posted by George Harris (Member # 2077) on :
quote:Originally posted by train lady: The Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments has just come up with a "brilliant"idea. They will drop the gas tax and charge everyone by the number of miles they drive. this has gone over like a lead balloon. We do have 2 commuter lines and the metro and if people would car pool a lot of cars would be off the road but I think this is a concept that is too difficult for them to grasp.
Somebody has been to Singapore. This is done there. However, this is a small island city size country with a goivernment having all the forms of a democracy with very little of the substance. You will do what they tell you, or else, and the "or else" can be fairly severe.
Posted by train lady (Member # 3920) on :
How do they check on everyone and know who pays what.
Posted by Mike Smith (Member # 447) on :
Train Lady, think GPS. It's just another government intrusion on our lives.
And expecting the New York Times to get anything right is a futile quest. They simply do not employ anyone with an IQ over 95. (and I'm being generous!)
Posted by Gilbert B Norman (Member # 1541) on :
We can of course be certain Mr. Smith has EZ-Tags for his vehicles.
I must acknowledge that I do know someone around here who will not get an I-Pass.
Posted by DeeCT (Member # 3241) on :
quote:Originally posted by train lady: How do they check on everyone and know who pays what.
In States with mandatory Emissions Testing it would be easy. Here in CT the program is computerized and they record the odometer reading at the time of the test. Just a click or two and that information could be sent to the appropriate Tax Dept and next thing you know a bill will arrive in the mail.
Dee
Posted by George Harris (Member # 2077) on :
quote:Originally posted by DeeCT:
quote:Originally posted by train lady: How do they check on everyone and know who pays what.
In States with mandatory Emissions Testing it would be easy. Here in CT the program is computerized and they record the odometer reading at the time of the test. Just a click or two and that information could be sent to the appropriate Tax Dept and next thing you know a bill will arrive in the mail.
Dee
How can they claim that all these mile were driven within the state, particularly given the postage stamp size of the state of Connecticut?
Singapore gets around the issue of where the milage was driven by requiring all cars operating in Singapore to have a readable tag mounted on the underside of your vehicle and in the pavement readers at appropriate locations.
Posted by Mike Smith (Member # 447) on :
quote:Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman: We can of course be certain Mr. Smith has EZ-Tags for his vehicles.
I must acknowledge that I do know someone around here who will not get an I-Pass.
That is true. However EZ-Tag is My choice, for My convenience.