A very sobering essay, The Long Shadow of The Pandemic, appears today in the Wall Street Journal holding that "normalcy" will not return until 2024.
Fair Use:
A vaccine will probably not be widely deployed before the U.S. achieves herd immunity—a level of infection in a population, roughly 40% for SARS-CoV-2, that limits the further epidemic potential of a pathogen. We are likely to reach that point by 2022 no matter what we do. To be clear, however, vaccines would still be enormously valuable to protect uninfected people even then.
Either way, with a good vaccine or without one, Americans will live in an acutely changed world until 2022—wearing masks, avoiding crowded places and limiting travel, at least if they wish to avoid getting or spreading the virus. This is the immediate pandemic period.
For some time after we reach either herd immunity or have a widely distributed vaccine, people will still be recovering from the overall clinical, psychological, social and economic shock of the pandemic and the adjustments it required, likely through 2024. This lingering response, typical of past serious epidemics, will demarcate the intermediate period. Then, gradually, things will return to “normal,” albeit in a world with some persistent changes. Around 2024, the post-pandemic period will begin.
Many of us at this exceptionally mature Forum and Site, are simply more elder than the average discussion site participant. I think it best that those who choose to read simply share their thoughts without any further "leading" by this originator.
Posted by George Harris (Member # 2077) on :
I always thought my father to be a clean freak when growing up, but now I see much of it being similar to what is going on now. He was born in 1907, consequently he was 11 years old during the 1918 flu epidemic. Plus, one of his uncles and cousins did die from the flu. Some major differences between now and then: This was during WW1, so the epidemic was downplayed as it was felt that knowledge of a widespread disease in the US would indicate a reduction in our military effectiveness, hence encouraging the Germans. As part of this there was a push to put something other than influenza on a death certificate, consequently a goodly number of the death certificates of that time labeled pneumonia were likely in reality influenza. This is unlike now, when it is likely that the covid death rate is overstated due to the funding provided to facilities claiming covid patients, plus that a goodly number of the deaths labeled Covid are probably WITH Covid instead of FROM Covid. Second, a 100 years ago the mortality of man was considered more of a normal condition so the thought of death itself did not raise the panic it does now. For people middle aged and older at that time, it was the norm in their growing up years that not all their siblings and friends and relatives of similar age would live to grow up. Plus, numerous people would die from disease and accidents at relatively young ages.