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Author Topic: Poofed
Gilbert B Norman
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The saddest thing out there is that of the last six respondents (starting with myself at post #33) at this topic, only one, Ocala Mike, based upon our reported locations, has a vote that counts. The rest of us? well, didn't we all vote in a straw poll of some kind or the other during high/secondary school?

No electoral college?, no "Gorebushoff", which to me was about the sorriest national debacle (as distinct from, let's say, tragedy) of my lifetime.

But then, I guess there is a plus side for me; I've haven't been bombarded with stupid and stupider political ads this election cycle; the only time I see one is on a talk show such as McLaughlin when it is a topic of discussion amongst the panelists. With no US Senator or Governor in Illinois standing for election and residing within a Village having a "politburo-for-life" (whoops, Village Trustees), the only candidate to pollute my TV viewing time will be the Republican US Congressman (Amtrak hater, BTW) who is new to us owing to the 2010 redistricting (I think the Democrats actually came up with a sacrificial lamb this year; they haven't always in the past).

And a final note to Mitt Romney; if things come down to a 'Gorebushoff" or a "mathematically possible but that's all" electoral tie, you'll win. But if you are to win, wouldn't you rather have done so by having more voters than not affirm you at the polls, regardless of their residency, rather than by some "selective" process?

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Ocala Mike
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:




Conservatives are HIGHLY motivated to vote, liberals are not.


With apologies to "the big dog," arithmetic trumps motivation.
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Mike Smith
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True, Ocala.

In the USA:
Liberals = 21%
Conservatives = 40%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/Conservatives-Single-Largest-Ideological-Group.aspx

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Ocala Mike
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Another way of looking at your arithmetic:

Conservatives 40%
All Others 60%

Anyway, this is the arithmetic I have in mind:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

I didn't try it, but I think anyone can play with their prediction on this map; I believe it's interactive, in other words.

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smitty195
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I can't wait until November 6th. [Smile]
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Railroad Bob
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
The saddest thing out there is that of the last six respondents (starting with myself at post #33) at this topic, only one, Ocala Mike, based upon our reported locations, has a vote that counts. The rest of us? well, didn't we all vote in a straw poll of some kind or the other during high/secondary school?

That sounds correct Mr. Norman- CA, IL, MA are pretty much "spoken for." FL could still be a question; whether it rises/sinks to a GoreBushoff we can hope not for that.

Ditto what you say about receiving campaign materials, phone calls at home, etc. supporting one candidate or the other. My good friend that resides in Burlington, IA reports getting inundated with campaign calls and a mailbox full of paper with advice on how he should cast his vote.

He was a Santorum guy, so I guess that would count him in the Romney/Ryan column... Iowa could be interesting to watch.

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TBlack
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GBN, Railroad Bob,

The media seems to equate campaign dollars raised with votes earned. With the dollars raised used to inundate voters to the point of annoyance, I'm wondering if the opposite is true.

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Jerome Nicholson
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
The saddest thing out there is that of the last six respondents (starting with myself at post #33) at this topic, only one, Ocala Mike, based upon our reported locations, has a vote that counts. The rest of us? well, didn't we all vote in a straw poll of some kind or the other during high/secondary school?

No electoral college?, no "Gorebushoff", which to me was about the sorriest national debacle (as distinct from, let's say, tragedy) of my lifetime.

But then, I guess there is a plus side for me; I've haven't been bombarded with stupid and stupider political ads this election cycle; the only time I see one is on a talk show such as McLaughlin when it is a topic of discussion amongst the panelists. With no US Senator or Governor in Illinois standing and residing a Village with a "politburo-for-life" (whoops, Village Trustees), the only candidate to pollute my TV viewing time will be the Republican US Congressman (Amtrak hater, BTW) who is new to us owing to the 2010 redistricting (I think the Democrats actually came up with a sacrificial lamb this year; they haven't always in the past).

And a final note to Mitt Romney; if things come down to a 'Gorebushoff" or a "mathematically possible but that's all" electoral tie, you'll win. But if you are to win, wouldn't you rather have done so by having more voters than not affirm you at the polls, regardless of their residency, rather than by some "selective" process?

I live in VA. Obama and Romney drop in just about twice a week. Their commercials support just about every TV show that's on. Pundit Larry Sabato says the election may come down to just us and Ohio! It's so nice to be wanted!
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TwinStarRocket
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538 is a blog by statistician Nate Silver whose predictions were the most accurate in 2008. Today he just happens to discuss how motivation may effect the outcome.
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Mike Smith
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I wonder how much obama's re-election committee paid 538 for that graph?

My prediction is Romney "over 300" electoral votes. We shall see which of us are more accurate in less than 2 months.

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notelvis
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Looking at the 538 blog electoral map, I find it ironic that the two candidates both accepted their nominations in states which will likely be carried by their opponent on November 6.

Also note that of the states that could be considered 'leans' North Carolina and Florida are both the weakest 'leans' for their respective man at this juncture.

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David Pressley

Advocating for passenger trains since 1973!

Climbing toward 5,000 posts like the Southwest Chief ascending Raton Pass. Cautiously, not nearly as fast as in the old days, and hoping to avoid premature reroutes.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Mike Smith raises the quite valid point favoring retention of the existing electoral college as the system makes the election results more decisive than would be the case if popular vote controlled. For even when "Gorebushoff" was over and done, there was a 30 or so electoral vote (on a base of 540) plurality for the victor.

The flip side of course is that the majority of the population may just as well stay at home and be spectator to "may the best man win" as the battleground states (sorry, Mr. Nicholson, if I failed to note your VA) tuck it out.

Am I recommending such course of action? No way; my vote is all I got even if this cycle it is nothing more than participation in a high school straw poll.

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TwinStarRocket
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If the election were determined by popular vote and it ended up in a virtual tie, I imagine the Florida 2000 drama could be played out in 50 states. I think I feel safer with the current game of political Scrabble.

538 is only a statistical snapshot that has potential to change. If Romney wins only 2 toss-up states, Florida and Ohio, then he wins. Mike's prediction of 300 electoral votes for Romney is not that unlikely.

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Vincent206
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My predictions: we wake up on November 7th with the President reelected and we find that this thread has mysteriously been "poofed"!

If the voters are buying the GOP/Romney story that Obama has screwed up mightily, then the polls should be showing Carter/Reagan numbers. Romney reminds me of a GOP version of John Edwards--great smile and hair, but not much substance. I think the GOP will find out that it takes more than Brylcreem to win the White House.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Messrs. Smith & Smith, if you would prefer to review election strategy from sources other than that appearing in The New York Times, here is a "chalkboard" appearing in The Journal today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443589304577635930616062476.html

Bottom line; Romney must win FL (we know Ocala Mike will be helping him out), but Obama could win without it.

For myself, I've now seen Obama's address on the C-SPAN website and I previously watched Romney's live. Now it's on to the debates; for even if I watch them the morning after on C-SPAN, I will do my best to stay away from either the print or talking heads until I've done so.

And finally, if you value the one-time Fox News tagline, as I do, of "We report, you decide", C-SPAN is where to go.

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Mike Smith
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OK, lets have a bet on who can get closest to the electoral votes of the winner. The Winner gets accolades from everyone that bet and the winner is acknowledged as the KING of politics until after May, 2013. The King must be shown the due deference associated with the position and the rest of us must acquiesce to his political knowledge for the entire 7 months.

My bet is 322 electoral votes for Romney.


And Mr. Norman, if I had cable, I'd watch C-SPAN.

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Mike Smith
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quote:
Originally posted by Ocala Mike:
Another way of looking at your arithmetic:

Conservatives 40%
All Others 60%

Anyway, this is the arithmetic I have in mind:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

I didn't try it, but I think anyone can play with their prediction on this map; I believe it's interactive, in other words.

And another way:
Liberals 21%
Everyone else 79%

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Smith, possibly C-SPAN is blocked if you are not a cable subsriber (can't help you on this one as both my ISP and cable are Comcast), but here is C-Span on the Web:

www.c-span.org

Both RNC and DNC have been available on the web "gavel to gavel" (and with a timeline to enable you to locate any speaker in particular you wish to hear); surely same for the debates.

Even if the debates start after my bed hour, I'll watch 'em next morning as I'm up and about at 430A - and I don't need either Sean or Rachel to formulate my thoughts on the issues being addressed.

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Ocala Mike
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I like Mike Smith's arithmetic.

The election is about who can win the hearts and minds of the 39% who consider themselves neither liberal or conservative.

The incumbent wins 4 more years with 322 electoral votes.

And, because he is a hero of mine, a quote from John Kenneth Galbraith:

“Trickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.”

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smitty195
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I've already got a steak and lobster dinner at Ruth's Chris right now as a bet. I wouldn't bet an expensive meal like that unless I knew I was right. [Smile] Obama doesn't have a chance this time around.
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Mike Smith
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So, Ocala, you're mirroring my pick? You pick Obama at 322 electoral votes?

And, as an FYI, John Galbraith does not have a clue what "trickle down" is. I'll help him. If the really rich/big business are spending a bunch of money, it trickles down throughout our economy.

It is very similar to what is happening with the Eagle Ford shale oil find in South Texas. Everyone is benefiting from the dramatic increase in spending by the big oil companies.

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palmland
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Fortunately in SC, no political calls or ads. Everyone knows exactly how they will vote. As for Amtrak, ride 'em while you can and imagine what a Virgin U.S. Rail would look like.
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Vincent206
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Obama 340-Romney 198

"The problem with trickle down economics is that eventually the people on the bottom get tired of being trickled on"--Norm Rice, former Seattle mayor

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Vincent, are you expecting that two Electors will vote for "others"? Otherwise correct to read Obama 340 Romney 200; vice 340 198.

I think from the views expressed at this topic, such has moved forth with a high degree of maturity and respect. Had same could be said for the earlier topic I originated, I would not have "poofed" it.

Further, I believe that all here hold that whoever wins will have little if any impact on Amtrak. The "RR rhetoric" of "we'll zero it out" is simply a play to their strong Red State base where Amtrak service is at beast characterized as "one a day at 0-dark-30", or otherwise meaningless as a transportation resource.

"The War is The War", and today our armed forces can best be considered a band of mercenaries that are, at least when compared to "when I was in", well paid, but otherwise to civilians pursuing their daily lives it's "out of sight out of mind'. The casualty rate, by historical standards, is quite low. At this time, no service is confronted with recruitment shortfalls. Wars always have and always will end with nothing having really, save a short lived sweeping under the rug, been settled.

So we get down to the one and only issue that matters and was aptly described by Bill Clinton as "it's the economy, stupid".

The Republican nominees are holding that the economy can best be revived through stimulation by investment, which means to create an environment, i.e. low taxes, in which parties with funds to invest will choose to invest them in plant and equipment to produce goods and services that people in a free market will choose to buy. From this stimulation will come the jobs and the "trickle down" (stow the wisecracks, please) economic activity they bring.

Only problem, while such stimulation worked during the Reagan era, it "belly-flopped" during the Bush 43 years. I doubt if anyone reading this posting could answer the "are you better off today than you were four years ago?" in the affirmative when Bush 43 left office (I know I couldn't; the Obama years have been roundly a stand-off).

So it figured that the Obama administration chose to try what was last done during the New Deal - and that was stimulation by consumption. Any of the Obama legislation starting with Stimulus, banking reform, auto industry bailout, and the Social Security tax cut, were all enacted by putting with rapidity $$$$ in the pockets of people that would spend it, as distinct from invest it.

Only problem, it really hasn't worked - nor did it really work during the New Deal.

So with the two means of stimulation flopping, where do we go from here? Try again what worked during Reagan, but flopped during Bush 43, or stick with FDR/Obama and hope for better times.

May the best man win.

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Ocala Mike
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:

So, Ocala, you're mirroring my pick? You pick Obama at 322 electoral votes?


I said I liked your arithmetic. 322-218 for BO.
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Mike Smith
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What worked for Reagan will work now. We are in a similar situation. The recession has not been cured, due to poor government decisions. Giving the rich some "free" money will stimulate them into doing that landscape job on their property they have been postponing, allowing the landscaper to buy a new mower and hire 1 or 2 people. Or the rich will use that found money for a new bath, allowing the contractor to buy a new tool and hire 1 or 2 people. It did not work for Bush 43 due to the lack of a recession.
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Ocala Mike
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:


Giving the rich some "free" money will stimulate them into doing that landscape job on their property they have been postponing, allowing the landscaper to buy a new mower and hire 1 or 2 people. Or the rich will use that found money for a new bath, allowing the contractor to buy a new tool and hire 1 or 2 people.

A truly remarkable view of economics that many do not share. Who's to say that the "free" money won't simply be salted away in bank accounts (which seems to be the case now)? Why stop with SOME "free" money; let's just give the whole country to a handful of billionaires.

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Ocala Mike

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TwinStarRocket
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Mike on Reagonomics: "It did not work for Bush 43 due to the lack of a recession." As someone who had some college economics, that is hurting my brain. So if an administration starts with a surplus and ends with a record deficit, the lack of an initial recession is a contributing factor?

GBN: As opposed to the simplicity of comparing the very opposite policies of FDR/Obama vs. Reagan/Bush43, what would happen if you added Eisenhower. At the beginning of his term, debt was something like 125% of GDP (a higher % than it is now). By massive government spending on the interstate highway system, higher education, and medical facilities (all what might be called infrastructure), the US economy was greatly improved over the long term. Does this not lend some validity to the Obama strategy?

I would submit that for the short term, most economists would agree that reducing government spending in bad economic times is risky. Over the last 30 years, it is only the Reagan years (with some tax increases) that supply-siders point to as the success of their theory. If you count Bush41 as the 3rd year of Reagan it ended in a recession. So did Bush43.

By contrast, Clinton had a tax increase and an improved economy. There are, of course, other factors that contributed to this history. But when Bush41 used the term "voodoo economics", I think he turned out to be right.

Oh, and my bet is Obama with 295 electoral votes in extra innings. But if declared the "king of politics", I refuse to serve. Like Groucho, I refuse to join any group that would accept me as a member.

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smitty195
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:
What worked for Reagan will work now. We are in a similar situation. The recession has not been cured, due to poor government decisions. Giving the rich some "free" money will stimulate them into doing that landscape job on their property they have been postponing, allowing the landscaper to buy a new mower and hire 1 or 2 people. Or the rich will use that found money for a new bath, allowing the contractor to buy a new tool and hire 1 or 2 people. It did not work for Bush 43 due to the lack of a recession.

You are spot-on, once again. The thing that really makes me scratch my head is that this is so simple and so easy. It's Econ 101, and we have history to prove this as correct. Yet there are plenty of people out there who disagree---which I don't think I will ever understand. Employees don't work for the poor---employees work for "the rich". Why is this so hard to comprehend?
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Mike Smith
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quote:
Originally posted by Ocala Mike:
quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:


Giving the rich some "free" money will stimulate them into doing that landscape job on their property they have been postponing, allowing the landscaper to buy a new mower and hire 1 or 2 people. Or the rich will use that found money for a new bath, allowing the contractor to buy a new tool and hire 1 or 2 people.

A truly remarkable view of economics that many do not share. Who's to say that the "free" money won't simply be salted away in bank accounts (which seems to be the case now)? Why stop with SOME "free" money; let's just give the whole country to a handful of billionaires.
I know "many" do not share the obvious. The clueless Krugman immediately comes to mind. Your speculation about rich people and salt was proven wrong in 1982 through 1992, and arguably until 2007. And the "all or nothing" fix rarely works.
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Mike Smith
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And TSR, by king, I mean you will be revered as the expert in all things political, through May 2013.

And you may have forgotten the record deficits happened after the Pelosi/Reid idiots took over our US Congress in 2007. There was no time to try the economic theory that worked so well for Reagan.

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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:
The clueless Krugman immediately comes to mind.

I think the Forum should note the credentials Mr. Krugman holds in this life:

Paul Krugman CV

To hold the captioned viewpoint is clearly within Mr. Smith's First Amendment rights; however I hope the smart fellow Mr. Smith has shown himself to be at this Forum has formulated his views from sources other than this kind of tripe, i.e. reading Mr. Krugman's material in The Times, listening to his thoughts on "Meet The Press", "Face The Nation", and "This Week".

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smitty195
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Krugman is what I have always called an "educated idiot". His comments are so incredibly off-mark most of the time. I love it when the daytime radio talkers recite his quotes, and then demonstrate why he's wrong.
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Just have to bust in here on Sat. night. Couple of things on my mind. I think you are all forgetting the dot-com bust in 2002-3(?). The country was headed toward a recession and to forestall it the gov't passed the "Bush tax cuts". It was an attempt to get the investor class going again. I believe most economists would say it was successful, and the fact that none here seems to remember that downturn would suggest that it was a success. But please try to remember why the Bush tax cuts were enacted in the first place.

What should have happened was a repeal of those cuts in 2005 when the economy was clearly free of recession and which would have enabled the gov't to give them back in 2009.

As to Paul Krugman, GBN, I do read and listen to all those sources that you've cited, and I'm still with Mike Smith on this. He's a Keynsian when most mainstream economists understand that the Keynes philosophy is out-dated and simplistic. A Model T Ford was great in its time, but we're on to hybrid!

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Mike Smith
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Mr Norman, I have read Krugman's NYT blatherings, and listened to his myopic, simplistic thoughts on the Sunday shows. That is how I came to the conclusion that he was clueless.

Smitty nailed it; Krugman's an educated idiot. (And Hannity is boring, most of the time)

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Gilbert B Norman
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While many of us here hold that "it's the economy, stupid" will be the deciding factor in the Election, this interesting article appearing in Today's Times Business section, holds it may not be the deciding factor:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/your-money/weak-economy-is-a-relative-term-this-election-year.html

Brief passage:

  • THE unemployment rate is 8.1 percent, hiring has slowed to a trickle and the economy is weak. For a president seeking re-election, those are high hurdles.

    In fact, if the maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid,” still has any validity in American politics, it might seem that Barack Obama’s goose is already cooked.

    But that’s not what the polls or prediction markets are showing. President Obama and Mitt Romney appear to be running neck-and-neck, and in major betting markets Mr. Obama is the heavy favorite.

    Has the economy lost some of its ability to influence politics?

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by TBlack:
As to Paul Krugman, GBN, I do read and listen to all those sources that you've cited, and I'm still with Mike Smith on this. He's a Keynsian when most mainstream economists understand that the Keynes philosophy is out-dated and simplistic. A Model T Ford was great in its time, but we're on to hybrid!

I wouldn't go that far. Keynean economics is to economics what Phrenology as a determinant of criminal tendencies is to psychoanalysis. that is, it never was real.
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notelvis
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No prediction for the election from me...... not yet anyway.

Playing however on Mr. Norman's 'Red Meat for the Red State' electorate statement, I am curious whether anyone here has ever seen the Lincoln, NE station (either the old one or the new one just opened this summer) by daylight?

--------------------
David Pressley

Advocating for passenger trains since 1973!

Climbing toward 5,000 posts like the Southwest Chief ascending Raton Pass. Cautiously, not nearly as fast as in the old days, and hoping to avoid premature reroutes.

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RR4me
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quote:
Originally posted by TBlack:
As to Paul Krugman, GBN, I do read and listen to all those sources that you've cited, and I'm still with Mike Smith on this. He's a Keynsian when most mainstream economists understand that the Keynes philosophy is out-dated and simplistic. A Model T Ford was great in its time, but we're on to hybrid!

I can't stay away. Mike Smith's example, of the "rich" spending money which provides others with spending money and so on, IS Keynesian economics in a nutshell!
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Mike Smith
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No, it is Economics 101.

Or do you think poor people will spend money to benefit the rich?

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