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I would guess 45%-R to 55%-O in this forum and I'm sticking to my 322 electoral votes for Romney. I do not have a guess on the popular vote.
Polls do not mean much right now. In two weeks they begin to matter. Here's an unskewed poll: http://unskewedpolls.com/Posts: 1418 | From: Houston, Republic of Texas | Registered: Jan 2001
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I don't think the polls are an accurate reflection of how the voting will go because they don't reflect how many voters in PA, OH, FL, will get to cast their votes.
Posts: 510 | From: Richmond VA USA | Registered: Mar 2004
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I can feel it in my bones---the polls are biased and fixed right now. Dick Morris (love him or hate him) is very politically savvy and knows this polling stuff in and out. He said that all of these polling companies are doing two things to favor Obama: 1) using the 2008 model, which is much different than 2012 because the turnout will be much different, and 2) they are polling an extra number of Dems compared to Repubs in order to get the result they want. Heck, if we were to follow and believe the media today, the election is all but over and Romney might as well quit right now. This tells me they are scared.....which is a GREAT thing IMHO.
Posts: 2355 | From: Pleasanton, CA | Registered: Apr 2007
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Remember Dick Morris' last prediction: "No one will notice that the NFL referees are replacements."
Posts: 510 | From: Richmond VA USA | Registered: Mar 2004
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Yep, I would not listen to Morris when it comes to football related stuff. His game is politics...
What the polls are ignoring is 2010. They will start to factor 2010's results into their calculations within the next few weeks.
Posts: 1418 | From: Houston, Republic of Texas | Registered: Jan 2001
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Did Dick really say that about the replacement refs? Ugh....yeah, he should stick to politics!
Posts: 2355 | From: Pleasanton, CA | Registered: Apr 2007
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The debate last night may well be a game changer for Romney. Obama simply got KO'd in what could be the upset of the entire campaign.
Enough to turn the tide Nov 6; who knows. But what I am most fearful could occur will be a "Robamany", or otherwise the 2008 version of the 2K "Gorebushoff".
At my age, I can well recall first hand 1960 Kennedy-Nixon. There was much contention that the election was stolen within the City of Chicago. Mayor-for-Life Daley (Richard the First) simply told "old man" Joe Kennedy that Jack will carry Illinois and hence win - meaning whatever manipulation was needed would be done.
But when Nixon learned of this surely manipulation, he said "no challenges; for the good of the country'. That certainly was a "non-operative" during 2K; unless someone is prepared to state that we are more unified as a society today than we were then, imagine how a challenge would play out today.
Posts: 9980 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Obama just stood there and took it while Romney lied his @$$ off! Just like he's taken it from the Republicans in Congress from day One. Combativeness just isn't in his nature. I hope Biden can pull his nutz out of the fire in the VP Debate.
Posts: 510 | From: Richmond VA USA | Registered: Mar 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman: At my age, I can well recall first hand 1960 Kennedy-Nixon. There was much contention that the election was stolen within the City of Chicago. Mayor-for-Life Daley (Richard the First) simply told "old man" Joe Kennedy that Jack will carry Illinois and hence win - meaning whatever manipulation was needed would be done.
But when Nixon learned of this surely manipulation, he said "no challenges; for the good of the country'. That certainly was a "non-operative" during 2K; unless someone is prepared to state that we are more unified as a society today than we were then, imagine how a challenge would play out today.
I well remember 1960 as well, even though I was still in highschool. This was the first election I paid any attention to. It was also the first where those in the South ceased to just automatically pull the "democrat" lever in elections for national offices. (The real fights for most offices occurred in the primary, and some of these all but drew blood. As a result in non-Presidential election years generaly election turnouts were fairly low.)
I remember Nixon's concession speech, and I feel like he ultimately decided two things: It was a mistake because Kennedy Johnson turned out to NOT be for the good of the country, and said to himself he would never again be in the "Nice guys finish last" position.
It wasn't just Daley in Chicago, either. West Virginia was bought through promises for federal money. (Why do you think there is a northeast to southwest interstate highway across WV? There are other things less obvious.) Johnson with his long time in congress also knew where everybody's skeletons were and really understood the arm twisting log rolling game. As one of my uncles in Texas said, "He has been a crook ever since he bought his first office." Also he showed how it was possible to become a multi-millionaire without ever making over $100,000 per year.
Parenthetically, this was the source of my initial distrust of Obamba, that he was a product of the Chicago political machine.
Posts: 2810 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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