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Author Topic: Election fallout - predictions?
palmland
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Today's Trains' newswire reports on one of the many changes in congress that could affect passenger rail. Anyone have predictions? I suspect there will be many new efforts to reform Amtrak or reduce funding, but two years from now we'll see little substantive change.

From the newswire:

Rep. James Oberstar, who has held a seat in Congress for 34 years and was chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, lost his bid for re-election Tuesday. Oberstar was known as the one of the leading experts on transportation policy. He was heavily involved in rail issues, and was a backer of partial re-regulation of the railroad industry and pushed for reform of the hours-of-service law.

With Oberstar gone, the committee chairmanship will likely fall to the ranking member, Rep. John Mica, R-Fla. Like Oberstar, Mica is well versed on rail issues. He supports making the Northeast Corridor into a true high-speed corridor, but has called for the restructuring of Amtrak and has introduced legislation in the past that would have included spinning off Amtrak routes to states and the private sector.

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Ocala Mike
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No predictions, but I offer this link to an informative article somewhat on the subject:

http://www.ajc.com/business/key-gop-lawmaker-cool-716443.html

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Ocala Mike
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And, in other election-related news, The Sunset Limited lost a friend in Tallahassee and Panhandle-area Congressman Allen Boyd, who was defeated last night.

Boyd, a “blue dog” Democrat, had advocated for the return of Amtrak service along the Sunset Route east of New Orleans.

Fortunately, another Florida congressperson, Rep. Corrine Brown, a huge supporter of all things Amtrak, was re-elected.

--------------------
Ocala Mike

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Gilbert B Norman
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As I first noted over at the Sunset Limited topic, but now have chosen to move those thoughts to this more pertinent topic, while not for one minute do I think the new Republican House majority will be chanting "kill Amtrak....kill Amtrak" (and even after the election rhetoric dies down, I doubt they will be chanting "kill Obamacare...kill Obamacare"), I think we are looking at an Amtrak that "did OK" during the 111th Congress but now it is time to be thankful "you got what you got when you got it". It appears that regarding the major equipment orders, the 70 Siemens electric locomotives are fully funded, but the 130 single level cars from the Spanish concern, CAF, are not. While I have fair confidence these cars will be delivered, somewhere at 100 Penn "wind will blow' regarding the 'waste' these cars (for LD's) represent (it's already blowing from CATO).

While the continued and growing public acceptance of both Amtrak's Corridor and LD services are certainly a plus, sometime during the 112th Congress, the call will move forth for some "pruning'. To what extent can (or will) a greatly neutered 1600 Penn come to the rescue, I know not.

One thing of which I am certain is that at such time that railroad traffic returns to 2007 levels (and it will; I've placed my bets on that) and if some proposal for needless service is moving forth, i.e. some LD route, the "confiscation' position may be more than just an off hand comment a TRAINS columnist reportedly heard, but rather a stated industry position promulgated through the AAR. Again, lest we forget the UP did not spend a reported $2B for capacity expansion just so they could handle more Amtrak trains over the Sunset route - and if they did, my shares will be voted to 'throw the bums out".

As I've previously noted, i believe that the "$8B for HSR" as enacted under ARRA '09 is simply "pork", earmarks', 'bridge to nowhere', or however one wishes to characterize needless government largess. What I find interesting is that some states (Wisconsin now appears to be one) are balking at continued participation in the projects to be funded in part by the "$8B". However, the states should recognize that, should they withdraw their participation, those funds will return to the US Treasury and cannot be used for other locally initiated projects such as highway construction.

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palmland
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Interesting article on Mica, OcalaMike. I too have wondered about the merits of HSR on that relatively short run to Tampa with multiple stops planned - how high speed could that really be. From painful experience, I am sure a line from the airport (and train station!) to the theme parks would be a hit. I am surprised that Disney hasn't done more to get that off the ground (or on track).

I do believe Boardman (and Amtrak board) should take the offense and come up with a plan for their view of Amtrak's future, including HSR - not the same old same old of struggling to get funding for the skeletal LD network. If they don't, they may well get what the politicians dream up - which is no way to run a railroad.

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smitty195
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My opinion: Nothing. Business as usual. Amtrak will barely survive year-to-year, just as they always have. Historically, there is no direct correlation between which Party is in power, and how Amtrak is funded and what routes are taken away/added. Status quo....

Amtrak is a political "third rail" in many places anyway. Not ALL places---but many places. My barber yesterday was chatting with me about taking vacations, and I mentioned Amtrak. He said, "They're not still around, are they?". He thought they disappeared years ago. So in the overall spectrum of things, Amtrak is basically irrelevant when it comes to the big picture.

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PullmanCo
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I sort of agree with Smitty.

I tend to doubt there will be any more HSR appropriations. The $10B now out there is it.

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by palmland:
Interesting article on Mica, OcalaMike. I too have wondered about the merits of HSR on that relatively short run to Tampa with multiple stops planned - how high speed could that really be. From painful experience, I am sure a line from the airport (and train station!) to the theme parks would be a hit. I am surprised that Disney hasn't done more to get that off the ground (or on track).

The first go-round of Ths line died because Disney had so successfully hijacked it to serve their interests to the exclusion of everybody else (or at least it was so perceived) that it lost all support from all other interested parties, and was effectively euthanised by its original supporters as being terminally ill.
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irishchieftain
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I vote "nothing" as well. The DNC is as much an "enemy" of Amtrak as the RNC — and it's a R president whose signature created Amtrak, not to mention a D president (and a hard-left one at that) who cut Amtrak the deepest back in the very late 70s. Only the least informed falls for the "GOP wants to kill Amtrak, Dems want it to thrive and turn into high-speed rail" line.
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George Harris
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Note Irishchieftain's workds. When dealing with politicians, turn off the sound and watch the action. Promises are words, frequently meaning nothing. It is quite the norm in politics for the hand that looks like it is going to clap you on the back to actually have a knife in it to stab you in the back.
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mr williams
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I will keep my predictions to myself, as how you folks choose to run your country is up to you and none of my business!!!
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Mike Smith
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Amtrak is a billion dollar blip on trillions of dollars worth of cuts the new Congress needs to implement. I'm not worried about it, but I will write my congress critters about the ridiculous inspections and intrusions into our personal space we must subject ourselves to, in order to fly. The latest pat-down search or pornographic scanning choice we have is unacceptable.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Even if the conservative "zealots" objective of 1) while in office to have President Obama signing (as distinct from an overridden veto) legislation to repeal in its entirety the healthcare act, 2) to have enacted a permanent extension of the "Bush tax cuts' also signed by Obama, i.e. the existing tax rates and structure, and 3) to defeat him (as distinct from not running which I am starting to believe will be the case) in 2012, is not fully realized, there will be casualties along the way. As I've noted in the related topic I originated, the "$8B for HSR" is simply ill-appropriated largess that is only putting the initiative for expanded intercity passenger service in the same category as (fill in whatever the most needless government expenditure happens to be).

The $8B should have been allocated in its entirety to the Northeast Corridor to shovel ready projects (EIS and all that stuff already taken care of) where many eyes (passengers) would see young men and women with a high propensity to spend (as distinct from invest) what they earn at work. As I've noted in the past, all that is needed for economic growth to resume (the Recession ended during July 2009) is for "John Q" to decide, "the Recession is over; let's go hit the mall and go out to dinner". "My neighbor just got recalled; I'm next".

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
The $8B should have been allocated in its entirety to the Northeast Corridor to shovel ready projects (EIS and all that stuff already taken care of) where many eyes (passengers) would see young men and women with a high propensity to spend (as distinct from invest) what they earn at work.

Why should the rest of the country have any enthusiasm about putting more money into public transport in the Northeast? They are already overserved compared to the rest of the country, and manage to absolutely waste a lot of what they do get. They should only get public transport money as a substitute for road money, as their ability to blow money on public transport does not hold a candle to their ability to blow money on road work - the Big Dig being a prime example.
quote:
As I've noted in the past, all that is needed for economic growth to resume (the Recession ended during July 2009) is for "John Q" to decide, "the Recession is over; let's go hit the mall and go out to dinner". "My neighbor just got recalled; I'm next".
Maybe where you are, but certainly not in a lot of other places.
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irishchieftain
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quote:
The $8B should have been allocated in its entirety to the Northeast Corridor
Absolutely not. The NEC does not need $18 million per mile to upgrade it (which is more than enough to build parallel "LGVs" that I can see). My viewpoints are basically in line with what Mr. Harris pointed out. The $117 billion proposal is the ultimate expression of the nonsensical "NEC-centric" view, which does need to die off.
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smitty195
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I agree with you, Mike. I have been VERY patient and tolerant with the TSA as they have continued to change/alter their policies. But in all honesty, things are now OUT OF HAND. I don't want to be seen nude by an anonymous TSA screener. And if I "opt out" and go for the pat-down search, they yell "OPT OUT!!!!! OPT OUT!!!!!" to get the attention of someone to do the pat-down search. Then another TSA person hears it, and passes the message down the line: "OPT OUT!!!! OPT OUT!!!!". Talk about embarrassing. This is really starting to p**s me off. Like I said, I've been very tolerant and patient with TSA, and I do a lot of flying. But now, it is getting RIDICULOUS.
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irishchieftain
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quote:
Originally posted by smitty195:
I agree with you, Mike. I have been VERY patient and tolerant with the TSA as they have continued to change/alter their policies. But in all honesty, things are now OUT OF HAND. I don't want to be seen nude by an anonymous TSA screener. And if I "opt out" and go for the pat-down search, they yell "OPT OUT!!!!! OPT OUT!!!!!" to get the attention of someone to do the pat-down search. Then another TSA person hears it, and passes the message down the line: "OPT OUT!!!! OPT OUT!!!!". Talk about embarrassing. This is really starting to p**s me off. Like I said, I've been very tolerant and patient with TSA, and I do a lot of flying. But now, it is getting RIDICULOUS.

They got this absurd and offensive idea from the European Union.
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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted by George Harris:
quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
The $8B should have been allocated in its entirety to the Northeast Corridor to shovel ready projects (EIS and all that stuff already taken care of) where many eyes (passengers) would see young men and women with a high propensity to spend (as distinct from invest) what they earn at work.

Why should the rest of the country have any enthusiasm about putting more money into public transport in the Northeast? They are already overserved compared to the rest of the country, and manage to absolutely waste a lot of what they do get. They should only get public transport money as a substitute for road money, as their ability to blow money on public transport does not hold a candle to their ability to blow money on road work - the Big Dig being a prime example.
Just like you, Mr. Harris, I was born one day, but it wasn't Yesterday and am well aware that for Federal level legislation to be enacted, the largess must be spread about the land.

Contrary to what some here may think is the case, I do hold that regions away from the Corridor have viable rail passenger service and that there are other regions in which such could be developed. But legislation to "stimulate' an economic recovery needs projects here and now; ARRA '09 was such legislation; not some kind of 'Rail Passenger Development Act of 2009".

The Corridor represents US intercity rail passenger service's "sure bet"; there are projects 'ready to go" in that the engineering and regulatory (EIS and all that stuff) have been done; all that is needed is funding, and with the ROW already Federally owned, no State need be called upon for participation.

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irishchieftain
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quote:
The Corridor represents US intercity rail passenger service's "sure bet"
No, it represents something already there. If other countries were to go with "sure bets", nothing would get built; and if commerce were predicated on "sure bets", you wouldn't have growth. (One of the few exceptions in terms of rail projects would be Stuttgart 21.)
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Tanner929
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Maybe Mr. Oberstar wasn't an "expert" on "all things transportation only an expert like the rest of them how to pass out money with little in return. The election was about fiscal responsibility. The President who has little or no experience in anything is shocked that there is no such thing as a government shovel ready job. People are more then alittle skeptical when a politician starts showing them pictures of their new toy trains. I'm with the Gov of NJ the tunnel is to expensive, put money on upgrading the exsisting systems the politicians only want to spend money on monuments to themselves i.e overbudgeted "transportation hubs" and flashy new railcars.
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Mike Smith
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The next time I fly, I will "Opt Out" and will request the best looking woman there to do my "pat-down". I'll complain mightily about a man patting me down and will question his sexuality....

I wonder if I'll make my flight... [Smile]

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Gilbert B Norman
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I realize that for most people younger than myself, time for Network Evening News does not represent a "time out" as it does for me.

Here is a clip aired last evening:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/ns/nightly_news/#40078514

No assurance this material will be available for very long, but, off rails, if you missed GWB and Matt Lauer playing 'whiffleball" last evening, "here you go":

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/39976132

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Henry Kisor
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That clip redefines the term "group grope".
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rresor
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Well, I fly fairly often, and I have asked for pat-downs for several years since I have an implanted cardiac device (defibrillator) that should not be exposed to magnetic sensors and has enough metal in it to reliably trigger magnetometers. Interestingly, the "millimeter wave" technology "sees" it, so I still get a partial patdown ever after going through the scanner. Sigh! A co-worker formerly worked for TSA, and he says they recognize that "it's all theater", the purpose of which is to reassure passengers, not to catch terrorists. Anybody feel reassured?
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rresor
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To return to the subject of the election: it's hard to say what might happen. There is talk of reducing spending to the 2008 level across the board, which would mean about a 22% cut in discretionary programs. There is also talk of a 5% across the board reduction. Remember, all tax and spending bills must originate in the House, and the Federal executive cannot spend money without Congressional approval. We could potentially end up with another round of government shutdowns if Obama and the Congress get into a shoving match.

All that having been said, I concur with the earlier comments. I have frequently pointed out (here and in other forums) that the only large cuts to Amtrak service occurred with a Democrat in the White House (1980 and 1995). Amtrak, by itself, isn't really big enough to matter too much in the "budget wars". However, the HSR spending is.

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notelvis
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quote:
Originally posted by Mike Smith:
The next time I fly, I will "Opt Out" and will request the best looking woman there to do my "pat-down". I'll complain mightily about a man patting me down and will question his sexuality....

I wonder if I'll make my flight... [Smile]

Don't ask, don't tell?

--------------------
David Pressley

Advocating for passenger trains since 1973!

Climbing toward 5,000 posts like the Southwest Chief ascending Raton Pass. Cautiously, not nearly as fast as in the old days, and hoping to avoid premature reroutes.

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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted at another topic by Dakguy201:
Service to Iowa City may be in trouble as well. Iowa's incoming Governor announced yesterday he wants to review the project in some detail before he proceeds with it. However, unlike Wisconsin it was not an issue in the campaign.

According to friends residing in Iowa and active within the IARP, Gov-Elect Branstad (a "Grover Cleveland' of Iowa Governors) is at best "neutral" rail, but could well "lean" anti-rail.
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notelvis
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How about Dubuque or the Quad Cities?

Is there any realistic chance that anyplace in the United States that does not see regular passenger train service today will see it by 2012?

--------------------
David Pressley

Advocating for passenger trains since 1973!

Climbing toward 5,000 posts like the Southwest Chief ascending Raton Pass. Cautiously, not nearly as fast as in the old days, and hoping to avoid premature reroutes.

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PullmanCo
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David,

Not DOD. Private citizen asking a question.

Of course, I can see the coming restriction on freedom of speech, as someone will interpret the remark "hate speech."

Even so, at this time? Not a problem.

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Henry Kisor
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To bump this thread back to the airline security digression:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/business/09lines.html?hpw

If security theater gets worse, I selfishly fear that more and more fliers will take LD trains instead, making Amtrak happier but possibly crowding out us happy-go-lucky rail buffs.

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RRRICH
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I'd rather have everybody on the flight subject to a full-body scan, rather than having one person "opt out" and be the next "underwear bomber" who will kill me and my family when he blows up our next flight somewhere -- do you really think the "underwear bomber" would consent to a full body scan? Get with it, folks -- we are adults, and the full-body scans have a purpose, even though sure, the scan may be uncomfortable for some. If you read about the full-body scans, they don't "see everything" -- they see gray-tone shadows, and the gun or bomb or whatever will show up as some white or other false-color image. Thank the underwear bomber for the necessity of this........

Now, if we were to implement a nationwide gun control law, a nationwide ban on handguns (like Japan does, I believe), that would certainly be a good place to start, but don't get me started on that!..........

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smitty195
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RRRICH,

Being a conservative, I completely agreed with you up until recently. It just seems ridiculously out of control now. Those new TSA body-scan machines show people nude, even though it's in black and white. There are plenty of pictures out there on the web that shows what it looks like, but in doing a very brief Google search, here is one example:

http://www.lakedouglasranch.com/blog/?p=191

You can see the man's "unit" and "family jewels" quite clearly. You can see similar details on women. I have yet to run into a TSA employee who seems mature and professional----to me, they all seem to fall into one of two categories: 1) English-as-a-second language folks who got hired to meet a Federal quota, or 2) Kids who are working a real job for the first time in their lives. I don't want those people seeing my "unit", and I certainly don't want them looking at nude 14 year old boys and nude 12 year old girls. That is my problem with this, along with the immature TSA agents yelling "OPT OUT!!" so that hundreds of passengers suddenly have their attention focused on YOU as if you're an idiot or something. There's gotta be a better way.

And the only problem with a gun control ban, of course, is that the bad guys will be the only people who are armed (except for the government). That's why Americans have the right to bear arms, because an unarmed public automatically gives more power to the government as well as more power to the bad guys. That's why stronger gun legislation is a joke. I worked in law enforcement, and have plenty of experience in dealing with illegal weapons. The new laws do not effect the bad guys carrying guns----they still have them no matter what. The newer/stronger laws only make it more difficult for law abiding citizens to buy a gun----simple as that.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Ohio Gov-Elect Kasisch (R) has no need for HSR or for that matter any speed passenger rail. However, he wants to keep the $400M awarded under ARRA '09 for highway construction projects.

SecTrans LaHood has different ideas on that one:

Associated Press courtesy of New York Times

Somebody is taking orders from rather high up in the conservative movement; it just seems as if it is hardly coincidental that all these GOP Gov-Elects suddenly and in unison are saying "take your bux and shove it".

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irishchieftain
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I'd take the liberal media's reporting with a grain of salt. Kasich seemed to know that going into Bosnia and Kosovo to fight Germany's war was wrong, that's for sure. On matters such as the WTO and international trade agreements (especially permanent MFN status for Red China), Kasich is on the left side of the equation. (More from OnTheIssues.org...might be out of date, but Kasich is left-leaning insofar as stuff like day care, line-item veto [which is executive legislation], throwing money at schools, and a number of other issues.)

As for the ARRA money, if NJ Transit has to give back money for the canceled ARC project, he's going to have to pay that money back too.

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RRRICH
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Smitty -- you're one of those "the constitution says we have a right to bear arms, so it's OK" guys, eh? Welllllllllll -- the constitution also at one time made it legal for rich white men to own black slaves. Does that make that right? The constitution also at one time said women could not and should not vote -- does that make that right? So why should something written 200+ years about the "right to bear arms" (while we were still aggresively fighting against England) still be "right" today?

That's all I am going to say -- let's get back to trains..........

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irishchieftain
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quote:
Originally posted by RRRICH:
Smitty -- you're one of those "the constitution says we have a right to bear arms, so it's OK" guys, eh? Welllllllllll -- the constitution also at one time made it legal for rich white men to own black slaves. Does that make that right? The constitution also at one time said women could not and should not vote -- does that make that right? So why should something written 200+ years about the "right to bear arms" (while we were still aggresively fighting against England) still be "right" today?

That's all I am going to say -- let's get back to trains..........

Where did the US constitution ever explicitly affirm chattel ownership of black slaves or bans on female enfranchisement...? Never did. One might argue that about the constitutions of certain states, but not the US constitution, even in the "three-fifths" clause of Article 1 section 2 or the "migration or importation" clause of Article 1 section 9 when it comes to slavery (implied but never explicit, otherwise all states would have been slave states); and absolute silence when it comes to women's suffrage. Never mind that a right specifically enumerated in the Bill of Rights has nothing to do with the TSA's activities that I can see.
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PullmanCo
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In re GBN's comments, apparently Mr LaHood has already spoken... NO.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A94T120101110

--------------------
The City of Saint Louis (UP, 1967) is still my standard for passenger operations

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Tanner929
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How about when the Federal Government allocates 9 billion to build a project they state thats the amount of money you get to build it and complete it by said dayte. Not here, is 9 billion dollars dig a tunnell less then a quarter of the way and hold up the taxpayers for additional funds and a deadline of sometime of the future. Sure I made a simplistic statement but it is the out of control expendures that turned the latest election.
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irishchieftain
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LaHood's hilarious, talking about "wast(ing) taxpayers' money"...no problems with the inflated ARC costs on the other hand.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Interesting how the British wire service has provided more coverage of this HSR rebuke than any US source I have noted.

Now it's time for Ding Dong School. Miss Francis is sick, so a substitute is here today:

"Now Scotty and Johnny, since you both were asleep in Civics class, lets give you a little crash course in the facts of life. Remember that the United States Congress bickers long and hard about legislation, but once they all agree to same, it is presented to President Obama who if he affirms it, makes it law of the land. In this case he signed it and hence the law says that your States are to be awardsd funds for the purpose of executing projects relating to the betterment of railroad facilities so that new or higher speed passenger trains may be run. That is what the law says; that is what you will use that money for.

Maybe you have heard of 'Revenue Sharing' programs, those are nice as here you can spend the Federal money any way you like. But these particular funds are not that.

You as the soon to be Chief Executives of your states, are free to accept or decline this money; you don't even have to ask your Legislatures. But if you take it you will use it for trains. If you don't, other guys will get it.

Ding Dong; now go home and Mommy will give you each a nice cold glass of milk".

Posts: 9976 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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