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Author Topic: Why Trump Will Win
Gilbert B Norman
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Here's how I see "things going down". This does not represent an endorsement of any candidate; just "soothsaying".

I think the "all clear" will sound about July 1. If they are to be believed, the Chinese are reporting fewer new Covid-19 cases as are the South Koreans. I only first learned of such during February and the widely reported fourteen day quarantine seems to be adequate.

I think the economy will recover fast. The reason is that most professionals with discretionary income are working, even if from home, and their demand for services, including travel, is "pent up". This of course means that furloughed service workers will be quickly recalled.

I think the Financial Markets will mirror the economic recovery, but in order to avoid inflation, interest rates had best rise (retirees whose portfolios comprise more fixed income securities than when working will like - something to remember on the way to the polls).

Now if this timeline holds, Trump will hold a "huge 4th" spectacle at taxpayer expense to celebrate the crisis' passing.

"Oh but we know it won't be partisan"

This of course followed with his throwing bread to the Proletariat touting his bold leadership, and how Joe would have been "snoring just like Herbert Hoover" (convenienly forgetting HCH was a Republican).

Trump will win re-election; not by an "oh so last century" landslide, but win.

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Jerome Nicholson
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Even if the nation's health and economy recover in late summer, you think people won't remember Trump's complete lack of leadership ability which may well have cost voters the lives of beloved friends and family members? Joe Biden may be a gaffe machine, but at least he would have been a better leader than what we've got now.
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George Harris
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Jerome, you must be getting all your info on Trump filtered though CNN and other major media. I feel the guy has done fairly good. Not perfect, but fairly good, particularly since there seems to be a relatively large contingent of politicians media and others who want to see Trump fail regardless of the cost to the nation. The idea of how Hillary would have handled this gives me nightmares. I do not see any of the potential Democratic candidates that would be of any benefit to the country.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Sorry, Mr. Harris, my (evangelical) Sister, and all the other Trump supporters out there, are making a serious mistake listening to him touting Easter as an "all clear" date.

Drs. Birz and Fauchi surely have, in their professional minds, "the Fourth".

Simply look at the parts of the World - the Far East, where the cases appear to have peaked; look at when there were first reports of such, and you're looking at a 90 day timeline.

That's "the Fourth", volks.

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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
I think the economy will recover fast. The reason is that most professionals with discretionary income are working, even if from home, and their demand for services, including travel, is "pent up". This of course means that furloughed service workers will be quickly recalled

It appears that I must "walk-back" this "optimistic soothsaying" on my part, for as this Journal article reports, layoffs are now hitting "white collar" positions that I thought were immune:

Fair Use:
  • The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn’t require personal contact, seemed more secure.

    That’s not how it’s turning out.

    A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses that set up employees to work from home are laying them off as sales plummet. Corporate lawyers are seeing jobs dry up. Government workers are being furloughed as state and city budgets are squeezed. And health-care workers not involved in fighting the pandemic are suffering
Without doubt, this is the most ominous development I've learned regarding this downturn. I'm starting to think that the recovery from this "Covid Recession" (better name, anyone?) will resemble that of the "Great Recession" from which the recovery was believed to have begun during March '09, but was not complete until '19.
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George Harris
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I have some other thoughts, but for now I am just going to drop this one out. There are a lot of businesses and their employees that have decided that they can do quite a bit from home, provided the people involved have the integrity to do real work. Since I have worked most of my life in engineering, which is for the most part an office job I have seen that come about. Although I am essentially retired I have done a little work from home in the last months. In every case, except field work, as in visiting a site for inspection, it has all been from home with communication by telephone and email with a few exceptions where the meetings on the site involved more than one person and we sat outside eating and talking. There are quite a few people that are saying, "hey, this ain't bad, we could keep this up." I could see some offices having this as a practice for some days of the week, but I suspect there will be some felt need to see face to fact at regular intervals. There are even some of the admin people that I know to be working from home, including items relating to time and expenses.

Should this occur, it could a a notable difference in road and transit traffic and trade at such businesses as restaurants and shops in office areas. It could also result in an even greater drop in public transit usage, two reasons, fewer people going and people being unwilling to be in close proximity with unknowns.

I was in Taiwan during the SARS epidemic and saw how they handled it. Virtually everyone wore a mask. Virtually every building had someone at the door taking temperatures or an infrared sensor. Public transit traffic dropped by almost half. People who did not have to go to an office or site stayed home. Air traffic between Taipei and Hong Kong dropped about half and that was/is one of the heaviest traveled air corridors in the world. People who did not have to go out, did not go out. There near panic we are seeing here did not occur. There were a lot of seemingly small things done, but the massive closings did not occur. People simply took precautions when they did go out. Eventually the epidemic worked its way through or fizzled itself out, but we got past it, and things came to be back to normal. There is a general suspicion that this one also started in China, but that I do not say further.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Where's The Greatest Generation and "pro bono publico" today? The willingness of people to sacrifice to get this COVID under control is totally lacking. People gather in large groups up close and without masks, kids and even young adults don’t know what the phrase “social distance” means. Then you get these “nutjobs” talking about their “rights”. Our civilized society is breaking down,

I’m so pessimistic with, at this posting, 93 days to go to the Election that I am fearing Trump will precipitate the greatest constitutional crisis we have faced. Should Joe prevail with pluralities in enough States to attain the needed 270 Electoral Votes, Trump will simply force the matter into the Federal Courts with challenges. He controls those; he’s packed them with loyalists. Sean and Tucker will be fanning the flames nightly.

The challenges will not be resolved by Jan 20, and I think we are looking at the Speaker of the House (presently and likely remaining so, Nancy Pelosi) being sworn in as the 46th (Acting) President.

Trump will have not won the Election, but with the Courts help, he will become the 47th President. The USA will be as much a dictatorship as is Russia, Turkey, and China.

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Jerome Nicholson
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And we will go to our graves thinking about the the country we left our children.
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Gilbert B Norman
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I have somewhat more hope that the election will stay out of the judiciary with Joe's selection of Kamala, She could be ready to go and be President on a moment's notice.

She could stand up to these tin horn dictators like Erdogen, Maduro, and even Vladimir, and will further mop up the debate floor with Pence. Trump will color himself lucky he doesn't have to debate her.

The Black vote will turn out this time - that such didn't in '16 cost Hillary Ohio. If Joe can flip PA and OH, and hold everything Hillary won in '16, he'll have 270. If that means he wins, I hope it's determined at the Ballot Box. Same applies should Trump prevail.

Joe made the best choice. I hope readers here agree.

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Jerome Nicholson
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Even better if Biden wins AZ, FL. NC and even TX on top of WI. Biden needs to score a landslide, not just squeak out an elevator college victory to avoid your scenario.
I would have preferred Harris for AG with Rice for VP because as a former prosecutor. she would go after Trump &co all out. But I'm sure they'll find someone suitable..
Now, after Biden and Harris' speech this afternoon, black women will come to the polls with their co workers, church members and salon buddies as they wouldn't have for Khlobuchar and didn't for Clinton. This puts OH and WI in play even more than before.

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Gilbert B Norman
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A very reasonable assessment, Mr. Nicholson.

Additionally, we must accept that the term "landslide" belongs to a past century, with Bill over Dole during '96 the last of such. I hold that there need be a 5% plurality in any state to avoid a challenge, so very safe assumption there will be. Fortunately, there is no meaningful Third Party to muddy things up this year (OK, Kanye West [Razz] ).

There is simply no reason to disrupt your "body clock" this year, and I'm surprised the TV stations even plan to offer marathon coverage. Possibly, as Mr. Nicholson notes, that one ticket or the other will have sufficient Electoral Votes in states with greater than that 5% threshold I note, but then I also note, "landslide" is a historical term.

Let's remember that States have until Dec 20 to certify election results internally, and their delegation to the Electoral College.

Finally, I still hold 50-50 the 46th POTUS will be the the 117th Congress' Speaker of the House, as provided by the Constitution.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Continuing with my "doom and gloom" predictions with 82 DTG, I think should Joe and Kamala win in the College, and are able to take office on Jan 20, there will not be a "traditional" inauguration day. They will be sworn in at a "masked" ceremony no more elaborate than that of a VP filling an unexpired term (be such Tyler, Fillmore, Johnson, Arthur, TR, Truman, LBJ, or Ford, let the history books describe those surroundings). Should Trump (and his sidekick; uh, WAZZIZNAME) win, still a "subdued" affair.

Finally, should someone other than Trump be next sworn in as POTUS, he, first, will not formally concede, will not participate in the ceremony, and he will need be "escorted" from the White House to the helicopter assigned the SAM - Special Airlift Mission. As this occurs, there will be demonstrations in Lafayette Park by two opposite factions that hopefully, but not likely, will be peaceful.

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George Harris
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At this point I expect Trump to win with sufficient certainty that the Democrats will not spend the next four years playing "Calvinball" like they have the last four. The he won't willingly cede if he loses is more the way Hillary and cohorts have acted the last four years. Should he lose I think he will leave with much more grace than Hillary failed to acknowledge her loss. By now I have had it to my eyeballs with how twisted our normal press has become, and am well on the way to saying these professional rioters should simply be shot and be done with them.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, I pray I'm mistaken; and that the Election will be sufficiently decisive so that when the College convenes, we will follow our 245 year tradition of a peaceful transition, or continuation, of power.

We both have worn the uniform of our country. We both took the oath to uphold that tradition.

I know we both want that.

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Jerome Nicholson
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If Biden wins, I think the inauguration will take place inside the Capitol Building. No parade, no inaugural ball. Split screen with Trump being walked/ carried/ frog marched/dragged out of the White House. The inaugural address will be virtual, with Biden signing dozens of executive orders as the House and New Senate enact dozens of new laws simultaneously with increased$ for corona virus/ depression victims.Meanwhile, the remaining Republicans will say they have a better solution which they never put forward when they were in power.
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Gilbert B Norman
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https://youtu.be/6eMcaHnkfLE

....and then go vote....for the candidates of your choice, but VOTE

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Gilbert B Norman
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72 DTG

Here's how I see things looking 8A ET Nov 4:

Joe 217 EV
Trump 196
Not called 125

https://www.270towin.com/maps/OlAvQ

If you want to "play" yourself, here is the home page for the interactive site from which I built the immediate:

https://www.270towin.com

As for myself, I'm going to bed at my usual 9P CT Nov 3, after having watched a movie. I'll "take a double" of my over the counter sleep aid, put the longest Mahler in the Player (8th; pretty sure), awake in the morning, and see where it all stands.

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Jerome Nicholson
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That's what I did in 2016. Didn't help because my sister called in the wee small hours to tell me Trump won.
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Gilbert B Norman
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It matters not who you are for, this Opinion piece appearing in The New York Times is worthy of your attention.

Fair Use:
  • This is not a column about a case that’s pending at the Supreme Court — yet.

    It’s about the nightmare scenarios surrounding the presidential election and its aftermath that could conceivably propel a case there. Such scenarios are being contemplated and written about with increasing urgency as President Trump ramps up his predictions of voter fraud, setting the stage for challenging the legitimacy of an election that he appears, at this point at least, likely to lose

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Jerome Nicholson
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If Biden wins, Trump will not concede however big the margin. But a big enough margin would have a better chance of surviving a court challenge.
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Gilbert B Norman
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I plan to vote on Nov 3rd at the polls. Of course I'll be masked (somewhere, but not in my precinct, somebody will try to vote unmasked; making a big "fruck" about "their rights") and go about 10AM.

I'm sure mail balloting is perfectly secure, but after voting early during '16, I said "never again". There was "just something missing"; emotional yes.

This could be my final Presidential Election, and I just want the "feel" of elections past. It will be hard enough not to "stay up", but "placing my bets" nothing will be decided, why disrupt my "hard to reset" body clock?

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, while I had a "pretty high bar" for concession speeches set when I watched Stevenson during '52 (11 yo), I do agree with you, Hillary "could have handled things better".

While I discount the reports circulated within "alternate media" that Hillary was "drunk as a skunk" and Bill told the Secret Service "you deal with her; I can't", she owed her supporters more than her "next Morning on the QT" appearance.

An "awful lot of people" worked "awful hard" without pay (I know several) for her, Hillary could have come out and conceeded in front at the same time she reportedly texted Trump.

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Gilbert B Norman
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"The Sum of All Fears", is my title for what follows:

https://youtu.be/4ZtTUe95PkM

In this video clip taken from "The Circus" S5 Ep13 airing on Showtime, foresees the civil unrest that will occur should Nancy Pelosi, or whoever is 117th Congress' Speaker, is sworn in as the 46th POTUS. It's not so much lack of qualifications, but rather our 241 year history of peaceful transition of power will have been broken.

"Let us pray..."

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Jerome Nicholson
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An even more fearful specter has appeared.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died.
Mitch McConnell, who denied President Obama a replacement for Antonin Scales in February 2016 on the argument that it was an election year, now says he will this vacancy in this election year.
This is going to be BRUTAL!

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Gilbert B Norman
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Even if RBG had hung on until January 3, the Senate would still have to "flip" - and there is a greater chance of Joe winning than that occurring. If somehow Joe is to win, I'm sure any SCOTUS nominee of his, qualifications notwithstanding, would have a "rough ride" ending with Mitch selecting the nominee and a "Mr. President, here is who will be seated".

Oh well, so much for 231 years of Separation of Powers.

All told, I think that RBG's passing has delivered Reelection to Trump. I have sensed that from the moment I opened this topic. Obviously, Trump knew RBG was in worse shape than was being let on. He certainly had "need to know" and accordingly he publicly announced he had his conservative "list" ready to go. Now, he is in the "driver's seat" to decide to nominate pre or post election. If he senses that the Senate could "flip" (unlikely), he will appoint now with a hurry up and vote now agenda. If he senses the Senate is "safe", then why not drag it out? Get those conservatives like the Evangelicals who just might have had enough of his amoral behavior, corrupt staff, and a ranking by the Wiki Notable Scholars" that he ranks 42nd of 44 (Buchannan and Andrew Johnson below), to be sure to come out to the polls to ensure his reelection.

Time for Kubler-Ross Phase 5 and accept there will be "four more years" of Trump.

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George Harris
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I had expected RBG to resign somewhere in the middle of Obama's second term. After all, she would have been 80, and it would give Obama the opportunity to put up a judge more in line with RBG's positions. Maybe she expected to outlast Trump's first term and that the Democrat, whoever it may have been, to be the one to appoint her successor?

As to Trump's crudeness in personality and past, for most of the Evangelicals and conservatives, Trump's positions on most things and his determination to action rather than just talk, put him far ahead of Biden regardless of what sort of personality he can present. As many have said, we are electing a president, not a pastor.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, I think that with the Dems having lost the Senate after the '14 midterms, RBG decided it was time for a "hang in there girl". Bearing that out was what happened with the Garland appointment, and all told so long as there is a Senate Majority Leader as ruthless as Mitch, the Constitution will be abrogated in favor of that Leader.

I think RBG was quite confident that whoever the Democrats nominated, Bernie and Liz included (just because I would have voted for Trump before either of those two matters not), would defeat Trump. I have to wonder that, as she saw Joe sink in the polls to the point that the election will likely be contested (ref: clip at post #22), she just "gave up and checked out".

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Gilbert B Norman
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With now 33 DTG, and the chanting "short" ringing in the air, I become convinced the momentum has swung to Trump.

That he will appoint, the Senate will confirm, a new SCOTUS Justice seated by Election Day, essentially assures should any contest reach the Judiciary (and several will; Trump will see to that), it will be decided in Trump's favor.

Further, Trump's statement he will not participate in an orderly transition, will be enough to scare some into voting for him. "Hey, no government I don't get my checks; better vote for him".

Also, the "bread for the Proletariat" will be thrown about. Case in point; the $200 prescription gift cards, which he appears to be empowered to initiate on his own.

But, even if not yet reflected in the Polls, the momentum is Trump's. He is a Showman, and Joe is simply a weak and plodding candidate. That Joe holds qualifications beyond those of Trump matters not compared with the ballyhoo a showman brings. While, considering the absentee voting, including mine, will mean no point staying up, the Election will be decided by the results - close but decisive.

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