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» RAILforum » General Forums » Open Discussion » War on Ukraine (f. “Ukraine debacle”) (Page 3)

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Author Topic: War on Ukraine (f. “Ukraine debacle”)
irishchieftain
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Complete inversion of history. A German Luftwaffe pilot (allegedly) went off course and dropped his bombs on Central London, and that resulted in Churchill ordering the RAF bombing on Berlin.

Where would the “cooler heads” be in Moscow, is the question.

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by irishchieftain:
Where would the “cooler heads” be in Moscow, is the question.

I doubt there are any cooler head in Moscow. Any that might have been probably no longer have their head connected to the rest of their body. The first rule of dealing with megalomaniacs is that you must either kill them or die. After that there are no rules. Thus, until he is taken out, becomes incapacitated or dies, this will not end.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Let it be noted that both The Times and Journal report that the Russian made missile was fired by Ukraine. Whether the explosion was an honest error that can attributed to the fog of war, or whether it was a "false flag" designed to bring Poland, and by extension NATO, into the war, will likely never be known.

Finally Mr. Helfner, the author of this Wiki article does not agree with your immediate position regarding the Battle of Britain (following quote edited by this auther).
  • Luftwaffe doctrine included the possibility of retaliatory attacks on cities, and since 11 May small scale night raids by RAF Bomber Command had frequently bombed residential areas. The Germans assumed this was deliberate, and as the raids increased in frequency and scale the population grew impatient for measures of revenge. On 25 August 1940, 81 bombers of Bomber Command were sent out to raid industrial and commercial targets in Berlin. Clouds prevented accurate identification and the bombs fell across the city, causing some casualties among the civilian population as well as damage to residential areas. Continuing RAF raids on Berlin led to Hitler withdrawing his directive on 30 August, and giving the go-ahead to the planned bombing offensive. On 3 September Göring planned to bomb London daily, with General Albert Kesselring's enthusiastic support, having received reports the average strength of RAF squadrons was down to five or seven fighters out of twelve and their airfields in the area were out of action. Hitler issued a directive on 5 September to attack cities including London. In his widely publicised speech delivered on 4 September 1940, Hitler condemned the bombing of Berlin and presented the planned attacks on London as reprisals. The first daylight raid was titled Vergeltungsangriff (revenge attack).

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Gilbert B Norman
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May I note here some additional observations and anecdotes regarding so-called WWII "Precision Bombing".

During the 1960 "Family trip to Europe", there was still quite visible war damage. At Munich, there were very noticeable buildings remaining damaged fifteen years afterward. Remembering such, one must wonder for how long after this war finally ends (my earlier prediction of a negotiated peace, as distinct from an unconditional surrender, settlement remains) will there be damage visibly remaining in Ukraine.

Finally, on my visits to Salzburg, I found out that "Wolfie's house" had been (American) bombed (sorry, but a "tourist trap" today). That structure is located some 2 klicks away from the legitimate military target of the rail facilities. Lines from Vienna, Villach (Italian border), and Innsbruck all converge there.

Well, so much for "Precision Bombing".

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irishchieftain
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Wikipedia is using sources that date from twelve years ago, one of them being Michael Korda. I presume they have abandoned their neutral POV policy without informing the public, which might be in breach of some laws.

And the track record of Adolf when it came to keeping his word was quite dismal long before the Battle of Britain.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Helfner, then perhaps that excellent twenty six episode British produced series "The World At War", where I first learned of RAF's bombing mistake prompting the Blitzkrieg, was also mistaken.

Wiki

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irishchieftain
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Yes. Jeremy Isaacs had a rather mercurial temperament, just for starters.

Back to the subject, on a tangent: WNBA player Britney Griner was released in a prisoner swap for Viktor Bout, also known as the “Merchant of Death”. If Bout were to turn his talents (loosely-termed) on Ukraine, things could get a lot bloodier in a short time.

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Gilbert B Norman
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I fear you are "on mark", Mr. Helfner.

Now insofar as Ms. Griner goes, it was a miscarriage to have "locked her up" for an offense that should have been just a citation and fine (she wasn't "trafficking"), but who had "been over there before", and simply should have known better.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Long - twelve pages in The Times print edition.

But I read it in full; and came away with the thought that the Ukrainians could possibly come to the negotiating table from a position of strength..

Some out there could read this and conclude the Ukrainians could win!!

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irishchieftain
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I do not see Putin as the kind of leader who cares about avoiding Pyrrhic victories.
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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by irishchieftain:
I do not see Putin as the kind of leader who cares about avoiding Pyrrhic victories.

Agreed. In fact, I seriously doubt those around him are letting him know how bad things really are going for his troops. But, yes, if it comes down to it, he will keep going to the last, ending up like Hitler, committing suicide in a bunker or Hussain literally being found in a hole in the ground.

It does seem that the Russians are willing to negotiate, but only if Ukraine effectively surrenders first.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Messrs. Harris and Helfner, the War will end at the table. NATO will provide enough hardware to Ukraine so that they "don't lose", and while it is indeed surprising, Russia apparently cannot muster enough conventional assets to win.

Neither side wants to see "Nukes a Poppin'".

Now so far as Putin, he just may step down, but that does not mean being dragged out of a sewer (Qaddafi) or the hole in the ground (Saddam). "Vlad The Great" will spend his remaining days sailing about on his 100m yacht between one villa and the other.

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irishchieftain
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Are we absolutely certain about “neither side”? Any “side” that saber-rattles with nukes is unlikely to ultimately avoid using them, and would be actually eager to use them in an offensive capability frankly. “Thanks” so much to the Rosenbergs, posthumously.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Helfner, I was overseas, visiting my Sister in London, during May 1986, or several weeks after Chernobyl occurred.

There was "concern", but not outright "panic" amongst people. Daily life went on.

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irishchieftain
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Well, if that illustrates anything, it would be the difference between Gorbachëv and Putin.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Journal columnist Holman Jenkins is as good as predicting Ukraine will win:

Fair Use:
  • Russia today possesses a small fraction of NATO’s productive capacity and will not be able to make up the gap, never mind neither’s being under direct military threat. One close similarity with Hitler, however, is the disappearance of any prospect of gain from the war Mr. Putin started in Ukraine, which offers now only variations on loss and disaster. The war continues only to spare Mr. Putin a loss of face from admitting a truth that is obvious to 100% of the people around him.

    Which brings us to the question of negotiations, faintly in the air since the prisoner trade for a U.S. women’s basketball star in early December. Mr. Putin desperately needs talks if they can get him out of the mess he created. They can’t. He waited too long and now it appears nothing can seriously alter the outcome.
It matters not if Mr. Jenkins' assessment is "on mark". It's simply time for this savage and ruinous conflict to end.
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George Harris
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Sometime over a week ago I saw a train coming through here going southbound on the BNSF, ex Frisco Memphis to Birmingham line with about 10 DOD six axle flat cars with two tanks each, right behind the engines. I would suspect Mobile port as a likely destination, thence to Ukraine. Did not want to post this sort of information immediately after seeing it. My best guess is the M1A1 tank. I grabbed a couple pictures with my phone but it appears that I cannot attach a picture to a post here.
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Gilbert B Norman
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A Journal article today which is "not exactly" optimistic for Ukraine's chances of eventually "not losing" the war.

In essence, the West will run out of desire to support sooner than Putin will run out of "assets":

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  • The war in Ukraine, it’s clear by now, won’t end soon. The bet in Moscow—and the fear in Kyiv—is that the West will lose stamina before Russia suffers a decisive defeat.

    So far, Russia’s expectations of discord among Ukraine’s backers haven’t materialized. Europe has severed its dependence on Russian energy with limited pain and no political cataclysms. As all major Western economies grew in 2022 despite the disruptions, the consensus behind supplying weapons to Kyiv has only solidified.

    Yet, with Russia announcing a mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in September and switching its economy to a war footing, time could be on Moscow’s side. So far, neither the U.S. nor Europe has made the adjustments, especially in military production, that are necessary for sustaining Ukraine in a war that could potentially drag on for several years. Neither are they immune to pain from further energy shocks.
Another point; Putin is in a fight, not for his legacy, but rather his life. If Russia decisively loses, there is all too great the chance Putin will leave this world much the same as did Mussolini, Qaddafi, or Saddam.
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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
Another point; Putin is in a fight, not for his legacy, but rather his life. If Russia decisively loses, there is all too great the chance Putin will leave this world much the same as did Mussolini, Qaddafi, or Saddam.

Maybe not that late in the game. There are probably plenty of people in the Russian government that would gladly pull the plug on the old boy, pull the troops out of Ukraine and lay the entire blame on Putin. Even those that thought it a good idea at the start would probably like to find a way out that did not involve their own destruction, and sacrificing Putin would seem the best way possible.
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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted by George Harris:
Sometime over a week ago I saw a train coming through here going southbound on the BNSF, ex Frisco Memphis to Birmingham line with about 10 DOD six axle flat cars with two tanks each..

Mr. Harris, your observation could prove timely especially in light of this development as reported by The Journal

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  • BERLIN—Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday.

    North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have over 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks, considered to be among the most sophisticated in the world, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies

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Gilbert B Norman
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A "not overly optimistic" article appears in The Journal today.

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  • Behind the decision to sharply step up Western military aid to Ukraine lies a worry in some Western capitals that time might be on Russia’s side.

    That concern suggests the window for Ukraine isn’t indefinite and it needs powerful Western weapons—main battle tanks, other armored vehicles and more air-defense systems—soon to reinforce the momentum it achieved in offensive successes around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson last year.
I defer to others for comment.
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George Harris
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The tanks I saw were Abrams tanks. Compared my pictures to a good side view I saw of an Abrams tank.

Long time ago heard that baring total incompetence, a nation with a 3 to 1 advantage in manpower and willingness and determination to conquer even with a fairly incompetent military, if willing to keep going regardless of cost in material and manpower will ultimately win. That is highly likely what we have here. The only possible positive outcome for Ukraine is if they can destroy Russia's military equipment faster than the Russians can bring it in and manufacture replacements, and keep that up until the Russians simply run out of manpower as well. This incidentally was in essence the cause of the ultimate defeat of the Confederacy. They were at the manpower disadvantage of about 3 to 1 and had far less manufacturing capability and no source of imported materials and weapons.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, there is a recently published book out there that speculates on points in military history such as you have immediately inferred. Here are two of the scenarios addressed:

1) McClellan won the '64 election over Lincoln. He would have come to the table with the Confederacy and there would remain to this day on North American soil the USA and the CSA, which would have been "frenemies".

2) Had Hitler chosen not to invade Russia, he and Stalin would have divvied up Western Europe in whatever manner they chose. Not having to fight on two fronts, as well as each other, there would have been no way that the military assets needed to have conducted a successful Normandy invasion could have been amassed.

And finally, allow me to repeat the thoughts of a History teacher in Secondary School who was wounded in the Italian campaign. The only reason, Mr. Brown held, we won is that we had more of everything. Had there been a "level playing field" where each side had the same assets as the other (football), the Germans would have "whupped us".

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irishchieftain
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quote:
McClellan won the ’64 election over Lincoln. He would have come to the table with the Confederacy and there would remain to this day on North American soil the USA and the CSA, which would have been “frenemies” …
Then the two entities would have never become world powers individually. And since the CSA was bucking the trend of history at that time, never mind the moral revival, it would have become a pariah and subject to attack from without. Neither USA nor CSA would survive. The British Empire, which banned slavery a half-century earlier and was engaged in stopping the international slave trade at the time, would have easily re-conquered the area using Canada as its base.

BTW, war is not about having a “level playing field”. Nor is it always about having overwhelming force, thus conquering by attrition and Pyrrhic tactics; the value of strategy in both WWI and WWII on the part of the USA is actively being covered up, frankly.

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