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Author Topic: Who's Gonna Win?
Gilbert B Norman
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As I write this (TV is off), looks like Ted has some kind of long shot stopping The Donald. Likely Rubio will hang on until the "winner take all" March 15 Florida primary simply for pride.

The coverage I was watching on MSNBC simply did not mention Carson or Kasich one way or the other, but it's clearly time for both to "pack up".

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Jerome Nicholson
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Last I saw, Kasich was slightly ahead in Vermont, with Trump in third.
And Rubio was ahead in Minnesota.

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Jerome Nicholson
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Rubio won Minnesota. Finally a win for him.
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Vincent206
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So, who is The Donald going to choose as his running mate? Will it be some old, white guy from the "republican establishment"? Probably not. If this nomination process has shown anything about the GOP, it's that the "GOP establishment" is actually pretty powerless outside of the US Senate.

How about giving Sarah Palin another chance? Trump's pretty weak in the mountain and western states; Palin is pretty popular out here and she's a woman (another demographic where Trump hasn't been terribly popular).

As I was scrolling through one of those on-line "List of Famous People Who Support Trump" sites I saw one name that I think would make a very interesting VP choice: Mark Cuban. I don't know if Cuban could be persuaded to run and if he would accept the 2nd slot, but I think it would be one of the best choices Trump could make for his running mate.

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Jerome Nicholson
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Trump and Palin? OH, HELL YEAHHH!!!!!
I LOVE IT!!!!

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Mike Smith
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Trump and Palin would still beat Hillary. Do not forget, she was beaten by an inexperienced nobody from the south side of Chicago 8 years ago.

It will not be Trump and Palin. We shall see where the contests are after the March 15 winner take all primaries.

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Gilbert B Norman
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A lot of "interesting stuff" - including that Cruz could beat Hillary - within these Real Clear polls:

Real Clear Politics

Of course, never forget the lame one that candidates with no chance have often refrained. "The only poll that counts is on November..(2-8)".

But I should be the first to acknowledge that if Cruz "gets lucky" in some of the delegate-rich "winner take all" states, he could still get it. I'm sure that is what Mr. Smith (and likely "Smith the Other", who hasn't been around these parts since last October) is betting on.

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George Harris
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As things settle down, I think Trump will be done. I would suspect that most of the votes in the various primaries that are split among Cruz, Rubio, et al will go to whoever is the final alternative to Trump, as I think most of the voters going to any of those other than Trump are of the "anybody but Trump" mindset. In other words, in none of these primaries did Trump have a majority. In all it was a plurality only. I don't see his percentage improving.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Tuesday March 8 will prove interesting - and has again showed how fallable the almighty pollsters can be.

The pollsters all predicted that Michigan was Hillary's to lose, but she did just that. Is there some undercurrent in both parties that they are going to nominate a maverick, or was this a bump in the road?

True, Bernie's victory was hardly decisive and Michigan awards delegates proportionally, so likely Bernie ended up with maybe five more delegates than expected.

But what if the pollsters are equally wrong about Florida, Missouri, and Ohio next week where they all have Hillary with commanding leads. We're talking Winner Take All. All told, it's not over yet for the Democrats. Hillary could just be in real trouble yet.

Now on the Republican side, if Rubio cannot take his home state, it is time to go home now. He is young and has higher political ambitions which would be harmed if he were deemed a loser.

Kasich; "play for pride" in Ohio and go back to your day job, where it appears the voters like you.

Donald and Ted; looks like you will be both going to Cleveland and "the floor".

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Jerome Nicholson
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Hillary was too clever by half. She accused Bernie of voting against the auto bailout when he didn't; he opposed the bank bailout that it was attached to. And people in Michigan remember that it was Bill Clinton who pushed through NAFTA and other trade deals that devastated the Industrial Midwest. The Rust Belt may prove to be Hillary's Achilles Heel, in the General Election as well as the Primaries. Even though she is not responsible for her husband's actions, she did not oppose them at the time. Then she implied she was always agains them when she wasn't. And the more people see through her, the more they will vote for Bernie.
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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Jerome Nicholson:
Even though she is not responsible for her husband's actions, she did not oppose them at the time. Then she implied she was always against them when she wasn't. And the more people see through her, the more they will vote for Bernie.

And the more people remember that she was the brains and action of that couple such that much of what went on, other that skirt chasing, in Bill's terms was actually Hillary. It is not actually a joke to say that "Hillary should be disqualified because she has already held the office 8 years."

Now for the other side, even though Trump seems to be able to pull off a plurality he usually does not manage a majority in the states where he comes out on top. Since, to me at least it seems that for many people, the better you know him the less you like him, we can only hope that the shine wears off before he gets the nomination. Sleazy as this guy is, some serious digging for dirt should be able to find enough to sink him.

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Jerome Nicholson
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quote:
Since, to me at least it seems that for many people, the better you know him the less you like him, we can only hope that the shine wears off before he gets the nomination. Sleazy as this guy is, some serious digging for dirt should be able to find enough to sink him. [/QB]
Problem with that tactic is the same can be said about Rodolfo Eduardo Cruz, the likely sole opponent to Trump's march to the nomination. The media hasn't highlighted his bad features because Trump sucks up all the oxygen. But there are reasons why the guy has no friends. No one who knows him likes him.
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Mike Smith
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Ted Cruz has a LOT of friends; very few of them are in our media. You really should do your own research about Ted Cruz, instead of relying on the Establishment that desperately wants to retain their power in DC.

http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com/2013/03/ever-take-look-at-ted-cruzs-resume.html

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Jerome Nicholson
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mike Smith:
[QB] Ted Cruz has a LOT of friends;"

Just none in the Senate where he works! [Big Grin]

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Mike Smith
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Ted Cruz has a number of friends in the Senate. Our clueless media ignore them, due to that fact being counter to their liberal agenda mantra. They erroneously believe that no endorsements = no friends. That is your typical liberal fantasy.

And there is an endorsement, with more to come.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senator-ted-cruz-is-my-friend/article/2582554

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smitty195
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I'm still alive!!! I'd like to chime in on this, but right now I am super stretched for time. I'll read through all of these hopefully this weekend, and then jump in. I'm known to have an opinion or two. [Smile]
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Gilbert B Norman
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Very pleased Andy, that first you are alive and well, and you want to come and join this fray.

Even if Open Discussion moderated by "no one", we are proving to be a bit more civil than are The Donald's rallies of late.

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smitty195
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Those Secret Service guys sure moved in fast earlier this afternoon. I was very happy to see that they were on their "A" game and were in tip-top training mode. I was really impressed with them.

More tomorrow. I am so exhausted that I can actually hear my bed calling me. "Smitty..........SMITTY!!!!!.........Come to bed..........".

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Gilbert B Norman
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Could Tuesday be the beginning of the end for The Donald?
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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
Could Tuesday be the beginning of the end for The Donald?

We can only hope.
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Mike Smith
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Unlikely. Trump has hit a nerve with the American people, thanks to the lying GOPe and the extreme leftists. Our Nation is out of control, very bloated, and is non-responsive to We, the People. We need a 20% decrease in social spending, and we will not get it with the current crop of congress critters.

The last 7 years have unmasked the republicans. There is not a dime's worth of difference between Reid and McConnell or Pelosi and Boehner or Ryan. When all the GOPe signed off on the omnibus bill that fully funded Planned Parenthood and gave them a 5% increase for this year, and also fully funded obama's Syrian muslim refugee program, while ignoring his refusal to allow Syrian christian refugees to come here 2-3 years ago, normal people were finished with the lies emanating out of DC.

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George Harris
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Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire and see the parallels.
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Mike Smith
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quote:
Originally posted by George Harris:
Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire and see the parallels.

TRUE!

This is why I am trying to convince our State legislature to start planning the resurrection of the Republic of Texas, so we can resign our membership in this failed Union.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr.Smith, EXTREME!!!!!

You are as much an American as am I. Through our votes we will try and mold our Republic to the best we can with our (sometimes I'd guess divergent) respective views.

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Mike Smith
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Mr Norman, REALISTIC.

The Union of these United States has failed. In 8 short years we have doubled our debt ($10 trillion to $20 trillion). We have allowed the two worst Justices ever to serve on our Supreme Court to be placed on that Court (Sotomeyer and Kagan). We have elected a nobody that hates the USA, with no executive experience, that clearly stated he wanted to fundamentally change the USA, and did. Our citizens are burdened with an ungodly amount of federal regulations and hoops we must jump through on a daily basis. We have 94 million people that are out of work and quit looking, while pretending we have a 5% unemployment rate. We have 46 million people on food stamps. We have clueless people that are destroying our coal industry and the good paying jobs that come with that industry. We are the victims of a huge scam, designed to take our money and our freedoms (what little we have left) away from us to combat a mythical global warming problem.

And you "think" we have the slightest chance of righting this sinking ship?

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Smith, I'll go along with you regarding the coal industry; lest we forget who hauls the stuff away from Ol' Man River.

Otherwise, "agree to disagree".

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Jerome Nicholson
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So John Kasich just won Ohio, making a brokered GOP convention more likely. Question is, how will Trump's fans take it if their guy isn't the nominee?
And who will the GOP bigshots anoint?

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Gilbert B Norman
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First, allow me to concede that "I was wrong" when I opened this topic.

Now with that having been said, I believe it's all over. While "the Hillbillies", co-presidency, Bill's third and maybe even fourth term, whatever, was "not too much in doubt", whoever dreamed it would be The Donald on the Republican side.

Bern, I'll gladly note you are a sincere and decent man, but alas, my felt tipped pen just somehow hit a different square yesterday.

Kasich? well, he's Ohio's Favorite Son. He's got a day job and the folks who hired him seem to think he's pretty good at it.

Ted? well I guess Mr. Smith can place his name in nomination for President of the Second Republic of Texas (or maybe Texhoma). Mr. Harris will be granted a visa to come and second him.

At least for me, there won't be too much "head scratching" on November 8.

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Mike Smith
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Hillary will not win in November. obama beat her in 2008, and an ancient old socialistic fool gave her a run for her money, this time. Donald Duck could beat her in November.

I'd be surprised if she managed to get 50 million people to vote for her in the general election.

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Mike Smith
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If she manages to cheat her way into the White House, bet the farm that Texas will become the Republic of Texas.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Just heard an interesting quote on NBC's "Today";

"The Republican Establishment is waking up this morning realizing they must be in (Kubler-Ross Phase 5); Acceptance."

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George Harris
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And WHY should there be "acceptance" other than that a network TV says it?
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Gilbert B Norman
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As we go into a week with one crucial Republican primary in Wisconsin, this could be the "beginning of the end" of The Donald.

While not formally a "winner take all" state, it could potentially be. First, Wisconsin has fifteen "at large" pledged delegates that are awarded "winner take all". Additionally, there are eight Congressional Districts that are each assigned three pledged delegates. Within each District, it's "winner take all". Finally, there are three "at large" unpledged delegates. In each case, unpledged means they are free to vote as they please throughout the balloting.

All told, if Sen. Cruz manages a "winner take all", The Donald would be hard pressed to land his "Billboard 757" at CLE with a majority of pledged delegates (plurality yes, but a majority is needed).

Over on the Dem side of things, even if Sen. Sanders manages a "winner take all" (same rules outlined above apply here as well), and "embarrasses" Sec. Clinton in proportional New York two weeks after Wisconsin, she still could arrive at PHL (aboard an Amtrak Special??????) with a needed majority.

So even if not Super Tuesdays, it will be a late night tuned to CNN around my barn.

Finally off topic even at Open Discussion, I'd guess there are aircraft hulls on sites such as Photoshop. I wonder if anyone has yet worked up a 747-200 in TRUMP livery?

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Gilbert B Norman
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Republican strategist and Wall Street Journal columnist Karl Rove has a most interesting and informative column, especially with regards to the allocation of Republican delegates through the remaining primaries. Regardless of your party affiliation, worth your time, as for once in his life (considering his '08 election return antics aired live on Fox News) , Mr. Rove appears quite objective:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-not-trump-gop-rises-1459984607

Fair Use:
  • Credit Mr. Trump for candor. But these are shortsighted words from a petty man consumed by resentment and bitterness who finds satisfaction in sowing, rather than in healing, divisions. They showcase a man who does not understand what it takes to unite his party and win a general election. They explain, in large measure, why he lost in Wisconsin and, with his defeat, perhaps his chance to win the convention on the first ballot and therefore the nomination.

My personal take at this moment; "beginning of the end". According to "Real Clear", as of March 31, the only Republican who has a chance of defeating Hillary, is Gov. John Kasich. If the delegates wish to nominate someone who has a chance, and that is why I presume they come together rather than to keep the makers of balloons and funny looking hats in the chips (oh and those are in Terminal Tower), better get on the Kasich bandwagon.

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George Harris
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Kasich? Somehow I have trouble seeing him with the nomination unless Trump, Cruz, and Rubio all either self-destruct or mortally wound each other (which could happen). In fact, it is looking more like Cruz is likely to have it as Trump's high sleaze component becomes more obvious.

I think one of Trump's main problems with himself is that he has always surrounded himself with "yes men" so he really does not know either how to react to or how to tolerate someone that disagrees with him and is neither afraid to say so nor within Trump's power to squash.

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Gilbert B Norman
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It is astounding that a Wall Street Journal columnist, William Galston, as good as conceded that Hillary will be the 45th POTUS:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/after-hillary-beats-bernie-shell-need-him-1460502072

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  • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, and there is nothing that Sen. Bernie Sanders can do about it......Hillary Clinton has the qualities of a first-rate prime minister. At a time when the American people are yearning for an end to political dysfunction and a return to government that works effectively on their behalf, what she offers will probably be enough to prevail in November.
It just seems that Republicans, their powers that be notwithstanding, are in self destruct mode. All the leadership need do is look at Real Clear Politics and see that so far as this polling site is concerned, the only Republicans that could defeat Hillary are Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI1) and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) - one has stated "not interested" and the other "in the cellar" with the delegate race.
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Gilbert B Norman
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From a Hooter parking lot near Nashville (pulled off to change to ET and check emails and this site)

After NY, it's all over volks, Trump will have the majority - no floor fight which I don't think there has been since 1952 Ike v. Taft. Hillary no question now if there ever was.

Hillary will be the 45th POTUS.

Now back to the road; Atlanta or bust!

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
From a Hooter peaking lot near Nashville (pulled of to change to ET and check emails and this site)

After NY, it's all over volks, Trump will have the majority - no floor fight which I don't think there has been since 1952 Ike v. Taft. Hillary no question now if there ever was.

Hillary will be the 45th POTUS.

Now back to the road; Atlanta or bust!

Love that: Hooter's peaking lot.

As to Donald vs Hillary: I don't know which scares me more. You have lying sleaze vs lying sleaze. Hillary is probably worse as she knows how to manipulate the government. Donald will probably end up like the spoiled kid impotently throwing screaming fits in his corner of the room.

Posts: 2693 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Gilbert B Norman
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From Woodstock GA;:Dirty Lex is becoming Red Lex again

No question whatever Mr. Harris, Olivia Pope will have more business arising from Clinton 45 than she ever did from the Obama administration.

You got to admit it, even though it appears your political persuasions are elsewhere, Obama has had a mighty scandal free administration.

Posts: 9388 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
You got to admit it, even though it appears your political persuasions are elsewhere, Obama has had a mighty scandal free a initiation.

And Mussolini made the trains run on time in Italy.

It is many other things about the man that I find disturbing. I will quit there.

Posts: 2693 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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