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Author Topic: Who's Gonna Win?
Gilbert B Norman
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From Crowne Plaza Ravinia Atlanta

Peggy Noonan has an excellent column appearing in Today's Journal:

Fair Use

  • Have you had your 2016 Moment? I think you probably have, or will.

    The Moment is that sliver of time in which you fully realize something epochal is happening in politics, that there has never been a presidential year like 2016, and suddenly you are aware of it in a new, true and personal way. It tends to involve a poignant sense of dislocation, a knowledge that our politics have changed and won’t be going back.

    We’ve had a lot to absorb—the breaking of a party, the rise of an outlandish outsider; a lurch to the left in the other party, the popular rise of a socialist. Alongside that, the enduring power of a candidate even her most ardent supporters accept as corrupt. Add the lowering of standards, the feeling of no options, the coarsening, and all the new estrangements.

It really seems as if none of the "Fighting Five" really respect the office they seek, with the nastiest campaign I can recall.

I think it all started with Obama's first State of the Union where a Member of Congress had the audacity to yell "liar" at our President. It has simply carried through to the Debates which once were a Meet the Press format where disagreement was noted with respect and civility. With the Jerry Springer format with the partisan shouting and booing, they have ceased to be a venue through which the candidates can express views on.the issues.

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George Harris
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Maybe, but in the 19th century, particularly in the first half, they had duels, so maybe impolite arguments are better than stepping off 20 paces and shooting, or going at it with swords, although from what I have read, that stuff seemed to have been handled with politeness.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Any enactments of the Burr/Hamilton duel I've seen (I haven't seen the current musical), depicted civility and respect, although hardly agreement on the policies that prompted the affair.

Allow me to note the disclaimer that in-laws (my Father's second wife - after my Mother deceased) were direct descendants of Alex, but being that as it may, I do believe that establishing the Central Bank was foremost in our achieving the Manifest Destiny envisioned by the Fathers. That it was abolished during the Jackson administration (I think) served questionable interests. We can be thankful it was reestablished during the Wilson administration; how much worse would have been the Great Depression, or even the Great Recession, without such.

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Gilbert B Norman
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The John and Ted "alliance" appears to have been "DOA". Bernie has said there will be a "reassessment" of the campaign after the results of this "Second Super Tuesday" are in.

Even before the votes are counted in PA and neighboring states, Hillary and The Donald will pivot to the General. Real Clear says at this time that Chief Justice Roberts will say a phrase never before heard in US History: "Congratulations, Madam President".

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George Harris
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I don't know which of these two (Donald or Hillary) scares me more.
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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, likely our political views differ, but read The Times Editorial that simply states The Donald is unfit to be President. Hillary may be corrupt and has bungling, e.g. Bengazi, isues, but she is unquestionably the most qualified candidate out there.

She gets my vote where it counts - November.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Could it be?

Hillary's running mate - Michelle!

Malia has been accepted at Harvard, but is deferring matriculation until '17 (expect anything different?). The Obamas have stated they want to remain in Wash until Sasha graduates from High School (whoops, the Quaker school she goes to).

Malia is certainly in a position to "hit the trail" this Fall; Sasha on weekends.

Could this be the beginning of an all-girl dynasty to top all dynasties: Hillary '16, Michelle '24. Chelsea '32, Malia '40 (no, I won't go as far as Sasha '48)?

Thoughts Mr. Harris; anyone?

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George Harris
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Hillary and following dynasty: If this comes to pass, not sure we will have a country long enough for the scenario to be completed.
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Gilbert B Norman
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First, just like DPM stated during the autumn of '67 when he knew it was over for what was left of the Great Trains, I too must note "Excuse the First Person".

Indiana apparently awards Republican delegates on a winner take all basis; the Democrats proportionally. This winner take all rule gave 'em all to The Donald.

Ted Cruz accepted what "winnable Moderates" such as Paul Ryan accepted from the start and checked out. Why Kasich (winnable says Real Clear, but, addendum, is now out) still hangs on escapes me, but I guess there is still some "jingle in the till". That soon will be gone - and so will he.

I can't believe how the Europeans I met last August and who wanted to talk politics, all said "how could a man so hopelessly unqualified and such a jerk even run?", and I confidently replied, "It's not whether but when; meantime he is using his own money; let him build ratings for his TV shows".

I wouldn't know what to say if I ever saw those people again.

Now on the Demies, if Hillary cannot build excitement in her campaign, she could be in trouble come November, and what if Bernie decides to do something stupid like a third party run?

In that immediate case, we know who will raise his right come January 20.

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George Harris
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As I said earlier, I don't know which of these two (Hillary or Donald if anybody is wondering) scares me more. I think Hillary because she has the political ability and knowledge to make things happen her way. Agree totally, if Bernie goes for third party, almost surely the next guy in the office will be Donald. For those of us that remember that far back, I am sure that J. Edgar Hoover managed to stay director of the FBI until he was ready to give it up was because he knew where all the skeletons in closets were for all those in power. That's Hillary. Donald does not have that. He also does not appear to know how to deal with opposition by someone he can't squelch. Therefore, I suspect he will end up being the most impotent man to ever hold the office, with the possible exception of Andrew Johnson. To say that Donald has delusions of grandeur is probably an understatement. He managed to hold onto his wealth while bankrupting businesses. Can he do that with the government? He may try and even succeed, but if he does he will end up surprised to find that when you bankrupt the entity that gives your money value, that his money becomes wallpaper. On the other hand if does manage to figure out how to make things happen in government I am also certain that it will go to his head, and we could end up with a parallel to pre-WW2 Germany. As said before, never forget that Hitler first came into power by being elected. Might add he got elected because he convinced the majority of the population that political business as usual was a bad thing and he was the solution. Considering the amount of power that had been given to the national government willingly or by court decisions over the last 80 plus years it will not take much for a man (or woman) in the White House to essentially render powerless any opposition.
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Gilbert B Norman
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More thoughts on "Bernie the Kingmaker" as the impact of such starts to set in. What will he "extract" from Hillary, to NOT run third party, and what will he extract from The Donald TO run?

Somebody please tell me I'm mistaken with this line of thought, but it seems to me that Bernie Sanders holds the power to select the 45th POTUS.

Wall Street, and for that matter anyone's portfolio, "better watch out".

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
Somebody please tell me I'm mistaken with this line of thought, but it seems to me that Bernie Sanders holds the power to select the 45th POTUS.

Agree totally. However, nut sure that Donald with his arrogance recognizes that fact, so he could easily be blindsided by Hillary on this point.
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Gilbert B Norman
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It appears that the Evangelical community will have no candidate to turn to in the expected Trump-Hillary showdown:

Washington Post

This community has consistently supported Republican candidates ever since Bush 41 during 1992 made abortion into a political issue.

I'm at a loss to know how any devout voter could support Trump, but The Hill reports that in three swing states - Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, if the election were today, "too close to call". All told, you don't lose all three and expect to file the Change of Address notice to 1600.

I can recall in grade school during the 1952 primaries (they had 'em back then, but hardly as binding as today), this teacher simply said "if Taft wins, I'm going traveling".

Could the "Expat" community, i.e. Americans living abroad, soon see a swelling of the ranks?

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Geoff Mayo
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
Could the "Expat" community soon see a swelling of the ranks?

For a moment I thought you meant the incoming crowd but then realized you're more likely talking about an exodus from the US. Nevertheless, in regards to the former, I doubt you'd find many of my co-expats (aka immigrants to the US) voting for the Trump. "Dangerous fool" is probably the most polite expression I can repeat here.

--------------------
Geoff M.

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Geoff Mayo:I doubt you'd find many of my co-expats (aka immigrants to the US) voting for the Trump. "Dangerous fool" is probably the most polite expression I can repeat here. [/QB]
Agreed. But, but, what do you call Hillary? I am probably more at loss for appropriated descriptive words when it comes to her, but dangerous is definitely part of them.
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Geoff Mayo
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I don't really have an opinion about her, nor have I heard any strong opinions either way from friends. It's all about Trump.

Tell me one thing though: if Cruz and Kasich dropped out last week, how comes they still got X% of the vote in more recent voting? And is this why Trump is not guaranteed to be the nominee, just the most likely (even though he's the one and only candidate)?

--------------------
Geoff M.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Bernie, it's time to check out.

The Times' Gail Collins has now said just that, and I hold same opinion.

Even if he still has $$$$$, those can go to having Democrats controlling all apparatus of government. But now, Hillary must spend just to fend him off.

By this time during '08, Hillary knew she lost - and got behind Obama. For that, as well as that she would not run against him in '12, she was rewarded with the SecState appointment.

I think with the support Bernie has, he will get a high level reward in a Clinton administration, and with the same Quid Pro Quo - don't run against me in '20.

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Gilbert B Norman
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I'm becoming very fearful that Donald J Trump will be the 45th POTUS.

How voters can turn their backs away from a woman who has every Head of State on her speed-dial and has been on the World Stage for some 25 years, simply escapes me. She will have as her coach, a president that brought prosperity that we have not seen since he left office - and who successfully lead an armed conflict in which there was not one US casualty.

But I'm fearful it's gonna happen.

Both Trump and "never give up" Bernie have risen in the polls - all too many are saying Hillary-Trump is either "too close to call", within "margin of error", or Trump will win. Trump-Bernie polls all show Bernie would win.

But the fact is evident that Hillary is a poor campaigner. She simply "can't fire 'em up" the way Obama could, and both Bernie and The Donald can. Even Bill, to whom Obama "owes him" for the second term, seems to have "lost his touch.

Why electing a president, where we should be looking, for one having the best command of the domestic and foreign issues confronting us, comes down to the one with superior campaigning skills rather than governing, simply escapes me.

But it appears that is where we are heading when a man, whom The New York Times has declared unfit to hold the office, now looks like he could well win it.

God help us.

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Vincent206
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I see the Libertarians have announced their ticket for the 2016 election: former GOP governors William Weld (MA) and Gary Johnson (NM). I don't think that ticket has WHITE HOUSE written on the destination line, but it could provide a viable alternative for the faction of GOP voters that can't vote for Trump.
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TwinStarRocket
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It seems the most popular notion of this election cycle is that those with no experience in government are most qualified to run it.
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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:

How voters can turn their backs away from a woman who has every Head of State on her speed-dial and has been on the World Stage for some 25 years, simply escapes me. She will have as her coach, a president that brought prosperity that we have not seen since he left office - and who successfully lead an armed conflict in which there was not one US casualty.

Hillary's performance on the world stage has a lot to do with why I tend to fear her in the office even more than I fear Trump in the office. As to Bill bringing prosperity? Nope. It happened for numerous reasons none of which involved acts of Bill.
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Gilbert B Norman
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I'm still concerned, this Wall Street Journal columnist notwithstanding, that 'We the People" are going to choose a "whatever adjective/expletive you choose" to lead our nation.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-is-still-the-favorite-1464131759

Fair Use:

  • Memo to poll-obsessed Democrats: Don’t freak out. Hillary Clinton remains a strong favorite to defeat Donald Trump in November. Mr. Trump’s poll numbers rose after he secured his party’s nomination, and hers will when she does. Mrs. Clinton enjoys structural advantages in demography, party registration and the Electoral College. And reading beyond the headline numbers of recent surveys, it isn’t hard to find evidence of the strengths on which she can build a successful election campaign.

    As recently as six months ago, it seemed likely that President Obama’s low job-approval rating would be a drag on Mrs. Clinton’s campaign. But that number has risen substantially in recent months and now stands at 51% according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News and ABC/Washington Post surveys. And as of last month, fully 50% of Americans approved of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy—up eight points since spring 2014. If the president maintains these numbers through the fall, his impact will be, if anything, modestly positive for Mrs. Clinton.


Like her or not, and she "ain't Bill out on the trail", 25 years of being on the world stage is simply too much to risk casting aside.

Yes, we have enjoyed a virtually scandal free Obama administration; and I'm sure if Hillary wins, Olivia Pope (TV show "Scandal") will have more business (never mind what she would have with the other guy), but her "dirty laundry" has been scrutinized by the public for now 25 years.

I hope "We the People" will choose to stick with what we know and not with what we don't.

disclaimer: author's Presidential voting record: 7R, 5D, 1I (last will never happen again; my vote is too precious to be thrown away).

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George Harris
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My one hope with a president Hillary is that she will not have a majority in either house of congress, even including the Quisling Republicans as hers.

I have about come to the conclusion that a president Donald scares me more than a president Hillary.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, it would appear that you would be looking for 4 to 8 more years of anarchy.

Now unlike Obama, Hillary has not campaigned on any sweeping domestic agenda. Trump's is so far fetched with "build the wall" and "keep 'em out" and ignorance of a requirement for enacted legislation that he has nothing beyond "Make America Great Again", whatever that means.

All I can go on is Hillary's 25 years of being on the world stage. Obama 2008-10 was guided by advisors saying "we have the votes; it's now or never, Mr. President", as they moved forth Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and a host of other initiatives designed to have the Conservative opposition go GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

Little did those advisors know or care that when they no longer had the votes, there would be anarchy.

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George Harris
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Anarchy beats a government with a hypercontrol mindset.
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Gilbert B Norman
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The Associated Press reports that Trump has his "magic 1237", after some uncommitted super delegates have pledged to support him:

Associated Press courtesy of Wall Street Journal

Fair Use:

  • Donald Trump on Thursday reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for president, according to an updated Associated Press count.

    It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president. Mr. Trump has reached 1,238, the AP calculated. With 303 delegates at stake in five state primaries on June 7, Mr. Trump will easily pad his total, avoiding a contested convention in Cleveland in July.

    Mr. Trump was put over the top in the Associated Press delegate count by a small number of the party’s unbound delegates who told the AP they would support him at the convention. Among them is Oklahoma GOP chairwoman Pam Pollard.

This is truly one of the most astonishing political events of my lifetime. So many were saying, myself included, "it's not whether but simply when and how" he would self-destruct.

Simply because I commend him for constructing a message that appealed to enough voters to put him there hardly means I'm about to "commend him" UNOWARE on November 8.

Lest we forget, Hitler attained power by being duly elected Chancellor of Germany.

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Gilbert B Norman
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A "Most Interesting" column, appearing yesterday in the Journal:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-might-not-be-the-nominee-1464733898

Fair Use:

  • There is now more than a theoretical chance that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee for president.

    How could that happen, given that her nomination has been considered a sure thing by virtually everyone in the media and in the party itself? Consider the possibilities.

    The inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.

    A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more—a significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters.
A theory is that Obama is committed to support Hillary - after all, Bill got him his second term with his performance at the '12 Convention. But if Hillary withdrew, Obama would be free to support who he wished - and that could easily be "Amtrak Joe".

If Bernie could put Trump away, Joe would likely have no problem.

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
But if Hillary withdrew, Obama would be free to support who he wished - and that could easily be "Amtrak Joe".

If Bernie could put Trump away, Joe would likely have no problem.

Don't know about that. To most people Joe Biden is Joe who. He has probably been one of the most invisible vise presidents in the the last century.

I think a Biden Democratic candidate would virtually hand the office to Trump.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Things appear to be looking up for Hillary. Real Clear Politics is now showing a 3.8 spread in favor of Hillary. The last poll they report favorable to The Donald, was ABC News taken during May. Since then, all Hillary, likely recognizing she did better than expected in California.

Now post-Orlando, it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the tragedy will have on the polls.

Real Clear Politics

Polls, of course, are very "fluid", and candidates, especially those far behind, have a way of saying "the only poll that counts is on November 8". But the immediate link is to a page that is contemporaneously updated.

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Gilbert B Norman
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quote:
Originally posted by Ocala Mike at another topic:
Quote of the day from FBI Director James Comey - "Only facts matter."

I'm uncomfortable about the fact that HRC E-MAILED state secrets; on the other hand, I'm downright terrified knowing that the presumptive Republican nominee would probably be TWEETING them out right and left.

Mike, if we did it, we'd be court martialled.

But in view of that the FBI is within the Justice Department, and reports to the President, "notta gonna happen".

Congress can yell all they want about the need for a Special Prosecutor, but 469 of 'em have "Job 1" at hand - getting re-elected.

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George Harris
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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
[QUOTE]But in view of that the FBI is within the Justice Department, and reports to the President, "notta gonna happen".

This is the normal in third world dictatorships, but SHOULD NOT be happening in the USofA. It is simply saying that thanks to political connections Hillary is above the law.
Posts: 2693 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Gilbert B Norman
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Mr. Harris, no question whatever Olivia Pope and her real life colleagues will have more business from a Clinton White House than they have had during the quite scandal free Obama administration.

Now regarding the mishandling of classified information within Hillary's State Department, if you, me, Ocala Mike, Mr. Pullman, and the others around here of whom I have no knowledge, done same in uniform, we'd be court martialled, I can't excuse such actions, but on November 8, I have to consider the alternative.

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Gilbert B Norman
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First, let it be noted that the link to Real Clear within post 148 is not frozen. As RCP updates their information, so is the linked material.

It appears that the Justice Department's decision to close the email matter has cost Hillary about three points, but she remains ahead. However, there is one poll, Rasmussen, that is predicting a reasonably decisive Trump victory.

On the other hand, there is a poll, Reuters, predicting a Clinton "landslide".

But such is the world of polling; lest we forget, "the only poll that counts is taken on November 8".

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Whoever would have dreamed a year ago that what happened at 710P ET in a city by a lake would have happened.

Not saying if it were a good moment, but it definitely was a moment in history.

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Gilbert B Norman
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Warning: the video attached is VILE; consider yourself warned. I have difficulty accepting that The New York Times could produce this material, let alone circulate it at their website:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/us/politics/donald-trump-supporters.html

Fair Use:

  • New York Times reporters have spent over a year covering Donald J. Trump’s rallies, witnessing so many provocations and heated confrontations at them that the cumulative effect can be numbing: A sharp sting that quickly dulls from repetition.

    But what struck us was the frequency with which some Trump supporters use coarse, vitriolic, even violent language — in the epithets they shout and chant, the signs they carry, the T-shirts they wear — a pattern not seen in connection with any other recent political candidate, in any party

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From Crowne Plaza Piitter Salzburg--

Real Clear is reporting that their polling shows that Hillary, in addition to her six point popular vote advantage has a 273 Electoral advantage, which if it holds, she's got it.

The Austrians I have met are just astounded how a major party ever nominated someone so unfit to be a President.

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George Harris
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History is almost repeating itself for me. I came to Singapore for a brief stint working right after Bill got caught as the ruler of the most powerful country but was a man who did not know how to keep his pants zipped. The taxi from the airport when finding out I was American said,"your president" and near ran off the road laughing. My feeling is that if there is anything a president of the US should inspire in people in other countries it should NOT be laughter because of his personal behavior.

Now, here I am in Singapore for two weeks and the first order of discussion with the locals in the office is the two dolts we have running for president. How could we in our huge country not be able to find hundreds if not thousands of people far more qualified? No one can understand it, including me.

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Forgot to add: In Singapore the law says you do not make disparaging remarks about the people in power. That is slander. Had to explain that such is not the case in the US.
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From Crowne Plaza Piitter Salzburg

Austrians, such as a Starbucks "Barista" and an Usher at the Fespialhaus who wanted to talk politics hold that we can't believe Americans could elect someone like Trump to be the leader of the free world. The idea that Trump would abandon the US's implied role as defender of Europe "scary". "Could Trump really let Putn walk in as did Hitler and take us over?" Said this lovely young girl, studying music at the Mozarteum, to me. I showed her the Real Clear site and explained how 270 Electoral Votes is magic. At the moment I showed how Hillary has 272 firm or strongly leaning, which meant if the Election were today, Hillary's got it.

I said to her that my Mother's family (FDR New Deal haters) moved to Saint Wolfgang (near Salzburg) along about 1932 and came back to the US when Hitler walked in. I said if Trump wins, I'm not above emigrating "for the duration - and I just love it here in Austria".

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quote:
Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman:
The idea that Trump would abandon the US's implied role as defender of Europe "scary". "Could Trump really let Putn walk in as did Hitler and take us over?" Said this lovely young girl, studying music at the Mozarteum, to me.

I cannot think of one good reason why we should defend Europe. There appreciation of how much we put into it last time is not exactly obvious. If memory serves me, the French, for example still owe repayment of loans from as far back as WW1. We, and the world, would have been far better of if the effort had been put into defending China against Mao and Stalin.
Posts: 2693 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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